I agree. I think this basically resolves the issue. Once you’ve added a bunch of caveats:
The bet is mind-bogglingly favorable. More like the million-to-one, and less like the 51% doubling
The bet reflects the preferences of most of the world. It’s not a unilateral action
You’re very confident that the results will actually happen (we have good reason to believe that the new Earths will definitely be created)
Then it’s actually fine to take the bet. At that point, our natural aversion is based on our inability to comprehend the vast scale of a million Earths. I still want to say no, but I’d probably be a yes at reflective equilibrium
I agree. I think this basically resolves the issue. Once you’ve added a bunch of caveats:
The bet is mind-bogglingly favorable. More like the million-to-one, and less like the 51% doubling
The bet reflects the preferences of most of the world. It’s not a unilateral action
You’re very confident that the results will actually happen (we have good reason to believe that the new Earths will definitely be created)
Then it’s actually fine to take the bet. At that point, our natural aversion is based on our inability to comprehend the vast scale of a million Earths. I still want to say no, but I’d probably be a yes at reflective equilibrium
Therefore… there’s not much of a dilemma anymore