What is the probability that the earth’s average temperature will rise less than 2°C from 1990s averages?
What is the probability of increased droughts/storms/wildfire/etc. in my location?
What is the probability of food shortages in my country over the next 10 years?
The answers to these questions would inform whether one takes greater or lesser preparations to deal with a changing climate. If you know climate change will affect the area in which you live, and have a decent prediction for the nature and magnitude of said changes, then you can prepare. As it is, the messaging around climate change is largely, “We know things are going to change! But we don’t really know how or when! Be afraid!”
Politics
What is the probability of a nuclear exchange within the next 10 years?
What is the probability that the US will activate selective service for an armed conflict in the next 10 years?
What is the probability of <regulation X> affecting <industry Y> in the next 10 years?
Even a limited nuclear exchange would have widespread economic and social consequences. If there’s a high probability of such in the near future, it might be a sign to move one’s assets into more liquid forms. Selective service is a US-specific question, but, depending on how fiercely one opposes forced military service, it might be useful to know if there was a decent chance of getting drafted to fight in an armed conflict.
AI
What is the probability of a human level AI developing within the next 10 years?
What is the probability that a human-level AI will be able to recursively self-improve without outside assistance?
What is the probability of a whole-brain emulation within the next 10 years?
What is the probability that, if a recursively improving human-level AI is developed in the next 10 years, the AI is friendly?
The AI questions will inform one’s views on giving to AI friendliness organizations and one’s viewpoints regarding the probability and time until a singularity occurring.
Some of these questions seem impossible to operationalize in a prediction market. For instance, if I bet that a recursively self-improving unfriendly AI will be developed in the next 10 years, and I’m right, how am I going to collect my money?
Even if you tried to design a prediction market around this mechanism, all it would tell you is the expected value of a promise to pay $x, n years from now. This would be affected by arbitrarily many factors, so you couldn’t infer the probability of a specific catastrophe like UFAI development.
Oh yeah, I also wanted to have more questions that would inform me on the extent to which I should be prepping. Thanks for bringing it up, I’ll add it.
Re Politics
And I also wanted to know the probability that San Francisco would receive a nuclear bomb or a earthquake of magnitude >X to inform me on whether I should avoid moving there.
it might be a sign to move one’s assets into more liquid forms
Although by the time the prediction market tells you that, a lot of money will already have moved to liquid form, and so your assets will already have lost a lot of value.
Re AI
As for AI, putting aside the issue of operationalizing them in a prediction market, how would people change their behavior based on them? I guess by being more careful about their health and security if it seemed aligned AI was around the corner (and less careful if it seemed extinction was). Also change career plans.
Climate
What is the probability that the earth’s average temperature will rise less than 2°C from 1990s averages?
What is the probability of increased droughts/storms/wildfire/etc. in my location?
What is the probability of food shortages in my country over the next 10 years?
The answers to these questions would inform whether one takes greater or lesser preparations to deal with a changing climate. If you know climate change will affect the area in which you live, and have a decent prediction for the nature and magnitude of said changes, then you can prepare. As it is, the messaging around climate change is largely, “We know things are going to change! But we don’t really know how or when! Be afraid!”
Politics
What is the probability of a nuclear exchange within the next 10 years?
What is the probability that the US will activate selective service for an armed conflict in the next 10 years?
What is the probability of <regulation X> affecting <industry Y> in the next 10 years?
Even a limited nuclear exchange would have widespread economic and social consequences. If there’s a high probability of such in the near future, it might be a sign to move one’s assets into more liquid forms. Selective service is a US-specific question, but, depending on how fiercely one opposes forced military service, it might be useful to know if there was a decent chance of getting drafted to fight in an armed conflict.
AI
What is the probability of a human level AI developing within the next 10 years?
What is the probability that a human-level AI will be able to recursively self-improve without outside assistance?
What is the probability of a whole-brain emulation within the next 10 years?
What is the probability that, if a recursively improving human-level AI is developed in the next 10 years, the AI is friendly?
The AI questions will inform one’s views on giving to AI friendliness organizations and one’s viewpoints regarding the probability and time until a singularity occurring.
This may be of interest WRT climate: https://voxeu.org/article/market-betting-climate-change
Some of these questions seem impossible to operationalize in a prediction market. For instance, if I bet that a recursively self-improving unfriendly AI will be developed in the next 10 years, and I’m right, how am I going to collect my money?
You bet on this by taking out a loan.
Even if you tried to design a prediction market around this mechanism, all it would tell you is the expected value of a promise to pay $x, n years from now. This would be affected by arbitrarily many factors, so you couldn’t infer the probability of a specific catastrophe like UFAI development.
Ok, but the point is: how do you aggregate this in a prediction market? You have no incentive to bet on Earth’s doom
Re Climate
Oh yeah, I also wanted to have more questions that would inform me on the extent to which I should be prepping. Thanks for bringing it up, I’ll add it.
Re Politics
And I also wanted to know the probability that San Francisco would receive a nuclear bomb or a earthquake of magnitude >X to inform me on whether I should avoid moving there.
Although by the time the prediction market tells you that, a lot of money will already have moved to liquid form, and so your assets will already have lost a lot of value.
Re AI
As for AI, putting aside the issue of operationalizing them in a prediction market, how would people change their behavior based on them? I guess by being more careful about their health and security if it seemed aligned AI was around the corner (and less careful if it seemed extinction was). Also change career plans.