Some of these questions seem impossible to operationalize in a prediction market. For instance, if I bet that a recursively self-improving unfriendly AI will be developed in the next 10 years, and I’m right, how am I going to collect my money?
Even if you tried to design a prediction market around this mechanism, all it would tell you is the expected value of a promise to pay $x, n years from now. This would be affected by arbitrarily many factors, so you couldn’t infer the probability of a specific catastrophe like UFAI development.
Some of these questions seem impossible to operationalize in a prediction market. For instance, if I bet that a recursively self-improving unfriendly AI will be developed in the next 10 years, and I’m right, how am I going to collect my money?
You bet on this by taking out a loan.
Even if you tried to design a prediction market around this mechanism, all it would tell you is the expected value of a promise to pay $x, n years from now. This would be affected by arbitrarily many factors, so you couldn’t infer the probability of a specific catastrophe like UFAI development.
Ok, but the point is: how do you aggregate this in a prediction market? You have no incentive to bet on Earth’s doom