Even if you tried to design a prediction market around this mechanism, all it would tell you is the expected value of a promise to pay $x, n years from now. This would be affected by arbitrarily many factors, so you couldn’t infer the probability of a specific catastrophe like UFAI development.
Even if you tried to design a prediction market around this mechanism, all it would tell you is the expected value of a promise to pay $x, n years from now. This would be affected by arbitrarily many factors, so you couldn’t infer the probability of a specific catastrophe like UFAI development.