Did I understand you right that you argue against path-dependent identity here?
“‘I’ will experience being copy A (as opposed to B or C)” are not pointing to an actual fact about the world. Thus assigning a probability number to such a statement is a mental convenience that should not be taken seriously
Copies might be the same after copying but the room numbers in which they appear are different, and thus they can make bets on room numbers
The issue, to me, is not whether they are distinguishable.
The issues are:
is there any relevant-to-my-values difference that would cause me to weight them differently? (answer: no)
and:
does this statement make any sense as pointing to an actual fact about the world: “‘I’ will experience being copy A (as opposed to B or C)” (answer: no)
Imagine the statement: in world 1, “I” will wake up as copy A. in world 2 “I” will wake up as copy B. How are world 1 and world 2 actually different?
Answer: they aren’t different. It’s just that in world 1, I drew a box around the future copy A and said that this is what will count as “me”, and in world 2, I drew a box around copy B and said that this is what will count as “me”. This is a distinction that exists only in the map, not in the territory.
Copies might be the same after copying but the room numbers in which they appear are different, and thus they can make bets on room numbers
The issue, to me, is not whether they are distinguishable.
The issues are:
is there any relevant-to-my-values difference that would cause me to weight them differently? (answer: no)
and:
does this statement make any sense as pointing to an actual fact about the world: “‘I’ will experience being copy A (as opposed to B or C)” (answer: no)
Imagine the statement: in world 1, “I” will wake up as copy A. in world 2 “I” will wake up as copy B. How are world 1 and world 2 actually different?
Answer: they aren’t different. It’s just that in world 1, I drew a box around the future copy A and said that this is what will count as “me”, and in world 2, I drew a box around copy B and said that this is what will count as “me”. This is a distinction that exists only in the map, not in the territory.