So, is it now the consensus opinion round here that we’re all dead in less than twenty years? (Sounds about right to me, but I’ve always been a pessimist...)
It’s not consensus. Ajeya, Richard, Paul, and Rohin are prominent examples of people widely considered to have expertise on this topic who think it’s not true. (I think they’d say something more like 10% chance? IDK)
So, is it now the consensus opinion round here that we’re all dead in less than twenty years? (Sounds about right to me, but I’ve always been a pessimist...)
It’s not consensus. Ajeya, Richard, Paul, and Rohin are prominent examples of people widely considered to have expertise on this topic who think it’s not true. (I think they’d say something more like 10% chance? IDK)