So I’m a little worried we’ve used different sources for your forecasts, but to explain where we differ:
We agree
We agree
We agree
Happy to change your number, although your forecast was: “Depending on what counts as ‘recalled’ this is either at least 10%, or it’s damn near 0%. I don’t see how you get 5%. Once you get an election going, anything can happen. Weird one, I’d need more research.” Which I averaged to 5%. Happy to change to 1%?
We agree
“It’s definitely a thing that can happen but there isn’t that much time involved, and the timing doesn’t seem attractive for any reason. I’ll sell to at least 15% on reasonable priors. ” I used the 15% from the place I linked to here?
“I’m going to sell this down to 30% even though I have system 1 intuitions he’s not going anywhere. Math is math. ” Is why I used 30%. Happy to change to 25%
Happy to flip you to the market if you’d rather
We agree
Fair enough, will give you the market prices for that
I think you’re between Scott and the market on that, which seems fair. (33% vs 50% and 11%). Let me know what you’d rather have
We agree
We agree
Will switch you to market. (Where you didn’t disagree with Scott I gave you Scott)
Happy to change the resolution depending on how Scott resolves his
Ah, I was looking at “Vitamin D is good and important, you should be taking it, but I’m skeptical that such sources will recognize this in the future if they haven’t done so by now. Conditional on (I haven’t checked) the sources that matter not having made this call yet, I’d sell it to 50%, while saying that I definitely would use it to treat Covid if I had the choice. ”
We agree
I think the major disagreement seems to be I’ve used your LW post when I should have used a different blog post. Would you mind linking me to the right one?
And no need to apologize for doing the exercise, it’s good to check things, long as it’s clear what’s being done.
When/if I do predictions for 2022 I’ll see what I can do about also including explicit fairs (and ideally, where I’d call BS on a market, and where I wouldn’t).
So I’m a little worried we’ve used different sources for your forecasts, but to explain where we differ:
We agree
We agree
We agree
Happy to change your number, although your forecast was: “Depending on what counts as ‘recalled’ this is either at least 10%, or it’s damn near 0%. I don’t see how you get 5%. Once you get an election going, anything can happen. Weird one, I’d need more research.” Which I averaged to 5%. Happy to change to 1%?
We agree
“It’s definitely a thing that can happen but there isn’t that much time involved, and the timing doesn’t seem attractive for any reason. I’ll sell to at least 15% on reasonable priors. ” I used the 15% from the place I linked to here?
“I’m going to sell this down to 30% even though I have system 1 intuitions he’s not going anywhere. Math is math. ” Is why I used 30%. Happy to change to 25%
Happy to flip you to the market if you’d rather
We agree
Fair enough, will give you the market prices for that
I think you’re between Scott and the market on that, which seems fair. (33% vs 50% and 11%). Let me know what you’d rather have
We agree
We agree
Will switch you to market. (Where you didn’t disagree with Scott I gave you Scott)
Happy to change the resolution depending on how Scott resolves his
Ah, I was looking at “Vitamin D is good and important, you should be taking it, but I’m skeptical that such sources will recognize this in the future if they haven’t done so by now. Conditional on (I haven’t checked) the sources that matter not having made this call yet, I’d sell it to 50%, while saying that I definitely would use it to treat Covid if I had the choice. ”
We agree
I think the major disagreement seems to be I’ve used your LW post when I should have used a different blog post. Would you mind linking me to the right one?
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/27/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold/ is the canonical version. Surprised the differences were this big. The struggle on knowing when to update all versions is real, especially now that there’s 3x.
Then beyond that your decisions seem fine.
And no need to apologize for doing the exercise, it’s good to check things, long as it’s clear what’s being done.
When/if I do predictions for 2022 I’ll see what I can do about also including explicit fairs (and ideally, where I’d call BS on a market, and where I wouldn’t).