And no need to apologize for doing the exercise, it’s good to check things, long as it’s clear what’s being done.
When/if I do predictions for 2022 I’ll see what I can do about also including explicit fairs (and ideally, where I’d call BS on a market, and where I wouldn’t).
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/27/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold/ is the canonical version. Surprised the differences were this big. The struggle on knowing when to update all versions is real, especially now that there’s 3x.
Then beyond that your decisions seem fine.
And no need to apologize for doing the exercise, it’s good to check things, long as it’s clear what’s being done.
When/if I do predictions for 2022 I’ll see what I can do about also including explicit fairs (and ideally, where I’d call BS on a market, and where I wouldn’t).