My AGI timelines are currently 50% by 2027. After writing this post I realized (thanks to the comments) that robotaxis were progressing faster than I thought. I still think it’s unclear which will happen first. (Remember my definition of robotaxis = 1M rides per day without human oversight.)
Counterpoint, robotaxis already exist: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/technology/driverless-cars-san-francisco.html
You should probably update your priors.
From the OP:
I agree that robotaxis are pretty close. I think that AGI is also pretty close.
you would have to have ridiculous ai timelines for it to be closer than robotaxis. Closer than 2027?
My AGI timelines are currently 50% by 2027. After writing this post I realized (thanks to the comments) that robotaxis were progressing faster than I thought. I still think it’s unclear which will happen first. (Remember my definition of robotaxis = 1M rides per day without human oversight.)