While Ebola might mutate to become airborne and spread like flu, and there is a real risk of that, there is little indication of it having happened. Until then the comparison with the Spanish Flu is silly. It’s not nearly as contagious.
Your linked post in the underground medic is pretty bad. The patient contracted Ebola on Sep 15, most people become contagious 8-10 days later, so the flight passengers on Sep 20 are very likely OK. There is no indication that the official story is grossly misleading. There are bound to be a few more cases showing up in the next week or so, just as there were with SARS, but with the aggressive approach taken now the odds of it spreading wide are negligible, given that Nigeria managed to contain a similar incident.
My guess is that the total number of cases with the Dallas vector will be under a dozen or so, with <40% fatalities. I guess we’ll see.
My guess is that the total number of cases with the Dallas vector will be under a dozen or so, with <40% fatalities. I guess we’ll see.
… And it looks like I was right, if unduly pessimistic. Total new cases: 2, total new fatalities: 0. I expected at least some of the patient 0′s relatives to get infected, and I did not expect the hospital’s protection measures to be so bad. It looks like the strain they got there is not particularly infectious, which saved their asses.
the numbers of ebola cases were no longer exponential since mid Sept.
instead they stay almost constant with ~900 new cases per week since Sep.14
This should have been clear to WHO and researchers at least since mid-Oct.
Still they publically repeated the “exponential” forecasts , based on papers
using old data. Ban ki Moon (on 2014/10/09) and Chan(on 2014/10/14) and Aylward
said it.
WHO until now puts forward their containment plan based on 5000-10000 new
cases in the first week of december. They didn’t correct it yet.
according to Fukuda on 2014/10/23, the WHO-committee on 2014/10/22
on the third meeting of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee
regarding the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa stated that there continued to be
exponential increase of cases in Guinea,Liberia,Sierra Leone
Downvoted for mindless panic.
There are no measures to speak of to control the flu. It goes through the world every year and we just live with it because it’s rarely fatal.
The Ebola curve is not exponential in the countries where appropriate measures were taken, Nigeria and Senegal: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/09/30/ebola-over-in-nigeria/16473339/ Clearly the US can do at least as well.
While Ebola might mutate to become airborne and spread like flu, and there is a real risk of that, there is little indication of it having happened. Until then the comparison with the Spanish Flu is silly. It’s not nearly as contagious.
Your linked post in the underground medic is pretty bad. The patient contracted Ebola on Sep 15, most people become contagious 8-10 days later, so the flight passengers on Sep 20 are very likely OK. There is no indication that the official story is grossly misleading. There are bound to be a few more cases showing up in the next week or so, just as there were with SARS, but with the aggressive approach taken now the odds of it spreading wide are negligible, given that Nigeria managed to contain a similar incident.
My guess is that the total number of cases with the Dallas vector will be under a dozen or so, with <40% fatalities. I guess we’ll see.
Upvoted for the firm prediction. Confidence level?
I would say 90% or so.
… And it looks like I was right, if unduly pessimistic. Total new cases: 2, total new fatalities: 0. I expected at least some of the patient 0′s relatives to get infected, and I did not expect the hospital’s protection measures to be so bad. It looks like the strain they got there is not particularly infectious, which saved their asses.
the numbers of ebola cases were no longer exponential since mid Sept. instead they stay almost constant with ~900 new cases per week since Sep.14 This should have been clear to WHO and researchers at least since mid-Oct. Still they publically repeated the “exponential” forecasts , based on papers using old data. Ban ki Moon (on 2014/10/09) and Chan(on 2014/10/14) and Aylward said it. WHO until now puts forward their containment plan based on 5000-10000 new cases in the first week of december. They didn’t correct it yet.
according to Fukuda on 2014/10/23, the WHO-committee on 2014/10/22 on the third meeting of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee regarding the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa stated that there continued to be exponential increase of cases in Guinea,Liberia,Sierra Leone