My guess is that the total number of cases with the Dallas vector will be under a dozen or so, with <40% fatalities. I guess we’ll see.
… And it looks like I was right, if unduly pessimistic. Total new cases: 2, total new fatalities: 0. I expected at least some of the patient 0′s relatives to get infected, and I did not expect the hospital’s protection measures to be so bad. It looks like the strain they got there is not particularly infectious, which saved their asses.
Upvoted for the firm prediction. Confidence level?
I would say 90% or so.
… And it looks like I was right, if unduly pessimistic. Total new cases: 2, total new fatalities: 0. I expected at least some of the patient 0′s relatives to get infected, and I did not expect the hospital’s protection measures to be so bad. It looks like the strain they got there is not particularly infectious, which saved their asses.