Your concern is reasonable. The only person on these forums who has any reason to trust me with money is Mitchell_Porter. Would his word be sufficient?
If Mitchell vouches for you, I’m willing to make a bet specified as follows:
I’m willing to bet 7 of my dollars to every 3 of yours (to provide me with sufficient margin to make the bet profitable for me, including any uncertainty of followthrough) from a minimum of $35 of mine ($15 of yours), up to a maximum of $210 of mine (90$ of yours)
If invoking the debt Lucius owes to Harry is only part of Harry’s solution, that still counts as a successful prediction for me. It also doesn’t need be called a “life-debt”, if it’s a lesser type of debt, that still counts. If Harry only threatens to invoke or redeem it, but doesn’t actually officially “invoke” or “redeem”, that still counts. If Harry claims it for a debt but the Wizengamot disagrees it is one, that still counts. (And if Eliezer states outright I figured it out, ofcourse I win then too)
Paypal would be my preferred method of money transfer.
I will take this bet, with the following stipulations:
I’m putting up $30 against your $70.
If Harry merely mentions the debt, you don’t win—it must be a significant part of the solution. (If necessary, “significant” can be decided by a mutually agreed-upon third party.)
If Eliezer congratulates you for thinking of a better solution than Harry’s, you don’t win.
If for some reason Mitchell doesn’t vouch for me, no one owes anyone anything.
You’re obviously a sock puppet (not a bad one, just an anonymous one.) So I just pictured Eliezer making a sock puppet account specifically to take bets on what’s going to happen in HPMoR.
My model of EY says that isn’t something he would do, but I find the concept hilarious, nonetheless. (And had many giggles while imagining scheming!Eliezer posting good plot ideas he DIDN’T use under a sock account, and then swooping in as another sock to offer bets on said idea, while laughing evilly (can’t ignore the Evil Laugh), and raking in the dough :P)
At Anna and Carl’s wedding, I advanced a MoR prediction, which Eliezer offered to confirm/deny iff I first made bets with all present, and I won something like $50 =)
85%
Bet?
I don’t know you. Can you get someone whose word I reasonably trust, like Alicorn or Nancylebov or Yvain or Eliezer to vouch for you?
Your concern is reasonable. The only person on these forums who has any reason to trust me with money is Mitchell_Porter. Would his word be sufficient?
If Mitchell vouches for you, I’m willing to make a bet specified as follows:
I’m willing to bet 7 of my dollars to every 3 of yours (to provide me with sufficient margin to make the bet profitable for me, including any uncertainty of followthrough) from a minimum of $35 of mine ($15 of yours), up to a maximum of $210 of mine (90$ of yours)
If invoking the debt Lucius owes to Harry is only part of Harry’s solution, that still counts as a successful prediction for me. It also doesn’t need be called a “life-debt”, if it’s a lesser type of debt, that still counts. If Harry only threatens to invoke or redeem it, but doesn’t actually officially “invoke” or “redeem”, that still counts. If Harry claims it for a debt but the Wizengamot disagrees it is one, that still counts. (And if Eliezer states outright I figured it out, ofcourse I win then too)
Paypal would be my preferred method of money transfer.
I will take this bet, with the following stipulations:
I’m putting up $30 against your $70.
If Harry merely mentions the debt, you don’t win—it must be a significant part of the solution. (If necessary, “significant” can be decided by a mutually agreed-upon third party.)
If Eliezer congratulates you for thinking of a better solution than Harry’s, you don’t win.
If for some reason Mitchell doesn’t vouch for me, no one owes anyone anything.
Done.
Please PM paypal info.
The money has been received, thank you!
Awesome
You’re obviously a sock puppet (not a bad one, just an anonymous one.) So I just pictured Eliezer making a sock puppet account specifically to take bets on what’s going to happen in HPMoR.
My model of EY says that isn’t something he would do, but I find the concept hilarious, nonetheless. (And had many giggles while imagining scheming!Eliezer posting good plot ideas he DIDN’T use under a sock account, and then swooping in as another sock to offer bets on said idea, while laughing evilly (can’t ignore the Evil Laugh), and raking in the dough :P)
At Anna and Carl’s wedding, I advanced a MoR prediction, which Eliezer offered to confirm/deny iff I first made bets with all present, and I won something like $50 =)
I was present and permitted to not-bet.
I vouch. :-)
Voting up all comments in this exchange for being virtuous.