Checked through to the microCOVID models and found you marked everyone as being silent. Technically, sure, no one would really be shouting while they’re dancing, but they’ll be breathing heavily enough that exhaled droplets/aerosols/whatever would be similar. Choosing “loud” as the option increases everything by a factor of about 20.
They calculate the following relative risk rates:
Silent: 0.0012 (1x silent rate)
Speaking: 0.0058 (4.98x silent rate)
Shouting / singing: 0.0350 (29.91x silent rate)
Heavy exercise: 0.0817 (69.83x silent rate)
IMHO, you could may argue for a risk factor of 1⁄10 compared to heavy exercise (which is 7x the silent rate), but my gut is that 1⁄5 (14x the silent rate) would be more likely, and something like 1⁄3 (23x the silent rate) would be a better and more conservative choice
Yes, I emphatically agree with this (as does my consultant, who is an epidemiologist who works on COVID full time).
I think one can reasonably argue about the details: loud vocalizations create different aerosol patterns than exertion, and off the top of my head I’m not aware of any really solid data on how the two would compare. But I think your numbers are low by at least a factor of 5, and a factor of 25 seems very plausible to me.
Also: you’ve selected surgical masks when doing the µCoV calculation. Will that actually be true? If most people wear cloth, thin or loose (which seems most typical here), that’ll increase the risk by another factor of 4.
Checked through to the microCOVID models and found you marked everyone as being silent. Technically, sure, no one would really be shouting while they’re dancing, but they’ll be breathing heavily enough that exhaled droplets/aerosols/whatever would be similar. Choosing “loud” as the option increases everything by a factor of about 20.
After the discussion here and on FB, I’ve updated the post to switch from “silent” to “normal”.
OK, did some digging. The relevant source is table 2 from Peng et. al., Practical Indicators for Risk of Airborne Transmission in Shared Indoor Environments and their Application to COVID-19 Outbreaks.
They calculate the following relative risk rates:
Silent: 0.0012 (1x silent rate)
Speaking: 0.0058 (4.98x silent rate)
Shouting / singing: 0.0350 (29.91x silent rate)
Heavy exercise: 0.0817 (69.83x silent rate)
IMHO, you could may argue for a risk factor of 1⁄10 compared to heavy exercise (which is 7x the silent rate), but my gut is that 1⁄5 (14x the silent rate) would be more likely, and something like 1⁄3 (23x the silent rate) would be a better and more conservative choice
This is a dance form with typical exertion somewhere between walking and lightly jogging. I don’t think you get anything similar to shouting?
Yes, I emphatically agree with this (as does my consultant, who is an epidemiologist who works on COVID full time).
I think one can reasonably argue about the details: loud vocalizations create different aerosol patterns than exertion, and off the top of my head I’m not aware of any really solid data on how the two would compare. But I think your numbers are low by at least a factor of 5, and a factor of 25 seems very plausible to me.
Also: you’ve selected surgical masks when doing the µCoV calculation. Will that actually be true? If most people wear cloth, thin or loose (which seems most typical here), that’ll increase the risk by another factor of 4.
On masks: I went with surgical based on my memory that at the outdoor event we held there was a mix of n95, surgical, and well fitting cloth masks. Ex: https://www.jefftk.com/davis-contra-2021-10-13.jpg