Yes, I emphatically agree with this (as does my consultant, who is an epidemiologist who works on COVID full time).
I think one can reasonably argue about the details: loud vocalizations create different aerosol patterns than exertion, and off the top of my head I’m not aware of any really solid data on how the two would compare. But I think your numbers are low by at least a factor of 5, and a factor of 25 seems very plausible to me.
Also: you’ve selected surgical masks when doing the µCoV calculation. Will that actually be true? If most people wear cloth, thin or loose (which seems most typical here), that’ll increase the risk by another factor of 4.
Yes, I emphatically agree with this (as does my consultant, who is an epidemiologist who works on COVID full time).
I think one can reasonably argue about the details: loud vocalizations create different aerosol patterns than exertion, and off the top of my head I’m not aware of any really solid data on how the two would compare. But I think your numbers are low by at least a factor of 5, and a factor of 25 seems very plausible to me.
Also: you’ve selected surgical masks when doing the µCoV calculation. Will that actually be true? If most people wear cloth, thin or loose (which seems most typical here), that’ll increase the risk by another factor of 4.
On masks: I went with surgical based on my memory that at the outdoor event we held there was a mix of n95, surgical, and well fitting cloth masks. Ex: https://www.jefftk.com/davis-contra-2021-10-13.jpg