For anyone of those (supposedly) > 50% respondents claiming a < 10% probability, I am happy to take 1:10 odds $1000 bet for:
“by the end of 2032, fewer than a million humans are alive on the surface of the earth, primarily as a result of AI systems not doing/optimizing what the people deploying them wanted/intended”
Where, similar to Bryan Caplan’s bet with Yudwkosky, I get paid like $1000 now, and at the end of 2032 I give them back, adding 100 dollars.
(Given inflation and interest, this seems like a bad deal for the one giving the money now, though I find it hard to predict 10y inflation and I do not want to have extra pressure to invest those $1000 for 10y. If someone has another deal in mind that would sound more interesting, do let me know here or by DM).
To make the bet fair, the size of the bet would be the equivalent of the value in 2032 of $1000 worth in SPY ETF bought today (400.09 at May 16 close). And to mitigate the issue of not being around to receive the money, I would receive a payment of $1000 now. If I lose I give back whatever $1000 of SPY ETF from today is worth in 2032, adding 10% to that value.
This seems like a terrible deal even if I’m 100% guaranteed to win, I could do way better than a ~1% rate of return per year (e.g. buying Treasury bonds). You’d have to offer > $2000 before it seemed plausibly worth it.
(In practice I’m not going to take you up on this even then, because the time cost in handling the bet is too high. I’d be a lot more likely to accept if there were a reliable third-party service that I strongly expected to still exist in 10 years that would deal with remembering to follow up in 10 years time and would guarantee to pay out even if you reneged or went bankrupt etc.)
Note: I updated the parent comment to take into account interest rates.
In general, the way to mitigate trust would be to use an escrow, though when betting on doom-ish scenarios there would be little benefits in having $1000 in escrow if I “win”.
For anyone reading this who also thinks that it would need to be >$2000 to be worth it, I am happy to give $2985 at the end of 2032, aka an additional 10% to the average annual return of the S&P 500 (ie 1.1 * (1.105^10 * 1000)), if that sounds less risky than the SPY ETF bet.
For anyone of those (supposedly) > 50% respondents claiming a < 10% probability, I am happy to take 1:10 odds $1000 bet for:
Where, similar to Bryan Caplan’s bet with Yudwkosky, I get paid like $1000 now, and at the end of 2032 I give them back, adding 100 dollars.(Given inflation and interest, this seems like a bad deal for the one giving the money now, though I find it hard to predict 10y inflation and I do not want to have extra pressure to invest those $1000 for 10y. If someone has another deal in mind that would sound more interesting, do let me know here or by DM).To make the bet fair, the size of the bet would be the equivalent of the value in 2032 of $1000 worth in SPY ETF bought today (400.09 at May 16 close). And to mitigate the issue of not being around to receive the money, I would receive a payment of $1000 now. If I lose I give back whatever $1000 of SPY ETF from today is worth in 2032, adding 10% to that value.
This seems like a terrible deal even if I’m 100% guaranteed to win, I could do way better than a ~1% rate of return per year (e.g. buying Treasury bonds). You’d have to offer > $2000 before it seemed plausibly worth it.
(In practice I’m not going to take you up on this even then, because the time cost in handling the bet is too high. I’d be a lot more likely to accept if there were a reliable third-party service that I strongly expected to still exist in 10 years that would deal with remembering to follow up in 10 years time and would guarantee to pay out even if you reneged or went bankrupt etc.)
Note: I updated the parent comment to take into account interest rates.
In general, the way to mitigate trust would be to use an escrow, though when betting on doom-ish scenarios there would be little benefits in having $1000 in escrow if I “win”.
For anyone reading this who also thinks that it would need to be >$2000 to be worth it, I am happy to give $2985 at the end of 2032, aka an additional 10% to the average annual return of the S&P 500 (ie 1.1 * (1.105^10 * 1000)), if that sounds less risky than the SPY ETF bet.