This seems like a terrible deal even if I’m 100% guaranteed to win, I could do way better than a ~1% rate of return per year (e.g. buying Treasury bonds). You’d have to offer > $2000 before it seemed plausibly worth it.
(In practice I’m not going to take you up on this even then, because the time cost in handling the bet is too high. I’d be a lot more likely to accept if there were a reliable third-party service that I strongly expected to still exist in 10 years that would deal with remembering to follow up in 10 years time and would guarantee to pay out even if you reneged or went bankrupt etc.)
Note: I updated the parent comment to take into account interest rates.
In general, the way to mitigate trust would be to use an escrow, though when betting on doom-ish scenarios there would be little benefits in having $1000 in escrow if I “win”.
For anyone reading this who also thinks that it would need to be >$2000 to be worth it, I am happy to give $2985 at the end of 2032, aka an additional 10% to the average annual return of the S&P 500 (ie 1.1 * (1.105^10 * 1000)), if that sounds less risky than the SPY ETF bet.
This seems like a terrible deal even if I’m 100% guaranteed to win, I could do way better than a ~1% rate of return per year (e.g. buying Treasury bonds). You’d have to offer > $2000 before it seemed plausibly worth it.
(In practice I’m not going to take you up on this even then, because the time cost in handling the bet is too high. I’d be a lot more likely to accept if there were a reliable third-party service that I strongly expected to still exist in 10 years that would deal with remembering to follow up in 10 years time and would guarantee to pay out even if you reneged or went bankrupt etc.)
Note: I updated the parent comment to take into account interest rates.
In general, the way to mitigate trust would be to use an escrow, though when betting on doom-ish scenarios there would be little benefits in having $1000 in escrow if I “win”.
For anyone reading this who also thinks that it would need to be >$2000 to be worth it, I am happy to give $2985 at the end of 2032, aka an additional 10% to the average annual return of the S&P 500 (ie 1.1 * (1.105^10 * 1000)), if that sounds less risky than the SPY ETF bet.