Note: I updated the parent comment to take into account interest rates.
In general, the way to mitigate trust would be to use an escrow, though when betting on doom-ish scenarios there would be little benefits in having $1000 in escrow if I “win”.
For anyone reading this who also thinks that it would need to be >$2000 to be worth it, I am happy to give $2985 at the end of 2032, aka an additional 10% to the average annual return of the S&P 500 (ie 1.1 * (1.105^10 * 1000)), if that sounds less risky than the SPY ETF bet.
Note: I updated the parent comment to take into account interest rates.
In general, the way to mitigate trust would be to use an escrow, though when betting on doom-ish scenarios there would be little benefits in having $1000 in escrow if I “win”.
For anyone reading this who also thinks that it would need to be >$2000 to be worth it, I am happy to give $2985 at the end of 2032, aka an additional 10% to the average annual return of the S&P 500 (ie 1.1 * (1.105^10 * 1000)), if that sounds less risky than the SPY ETF bet.