Sure, I’m happy to do a lazy bet of this form. (I’ll note that if we want to maintain the original point we should also require that the survey happen soon, e.g. in the next year or two, so that we avoid the case where someone does a survey in 2030 at which point it’s obvious how things go, but I’m also happy not putting a time bound on when the survey happens since given my beliefs on p(doom by 2032) I think this benefits me.)
Sure, I’m happy to do a lazy bet of this form. (I’ll note that if we want to maintain the original point we should also require that the survey happen soon, e.g. in the next year or two, so that we avoid the case where someone does a survey in 2030 at which point it’s obvious how things go, but I’m also happy not putting a time bound on when the survey happens since given my beliefs on p(doom by 2032) I think this benefits me.)
$100 at even odds?
Deal! :)