How about we do a lazy bet: Neither of us runs the survey, but we agree that if such a survey is run and brought to our attention, the loser pays the winner?
Difficulty with this is that we don’t get to pick the operationalization. Maybe our meta-operationalization can be “<50% of respondents claim >10% probability of X, where X is some claim that strongly implies AI takeover or other irreversible loss of human control / influence of human values, by 2032.” How’s that sound?
...but actually though I guess my credences aren’t that different from yours here so it’s maybe not worth our time to bet on. I actually have very little idea what the community thinks, I was just pushing back against the OP who seemed to be asserting a consensus without evidence.
Sure, I’m happy to do a lazy bet of this form. (I’ll note that if we want to maintain the original point we should also require that the survey happen soon, e.g. in the next year or two, so that we avoid the case where someone does a survey in 2030 at which point it’s obvious how things go, but I’m also happy not putting a time bound on when the survey happens since given my beliefs on p(doom by 2032) I think this benefits me.)
How about we do a lazy bet: Neither of us runs the survey, but we agree that if such a survey is run and brought to our attention, the loser pays the winner?
Difficulty with this is that we don’t get to pick the operationalization. Maybe our meta-operationalization can be “<50% of respondents claim >10% probability of X, where X is some claim that strongly implies AI takeover or other irreversible loss of human control / influence of human values, by 2032.” How’s that sound?
...but actually though I guess my credences aren’t that different from yours here so it’s maybe not worth our time to bet on. I actually have very little idea what the community thinks, I was just pushing back against the OP who seemed to be asserting a consensus without evidence.
Sure, I’m happy to do a lazy bet of this form. (I’ll note that if we want to maintain the original point we should also require that the survey happen soon, e.g. in the next year or two, so that we avoid the case where someone does a survey in 2030 at which point it’s obvious how things go, but I’m also happy not putting a time bound on when the survey happens since given my beliefs on p(doom by 2032) I think this benefits me.)
$100 at even odds?
Deal! :)