I agree that much of LW has moved past the foom argument and is solidly on Eliezers side relative to Robin Hanson; Hanson’s views seem increasingly silly as time goes on (though they seemed much more plausible a decade ago, before e.g. the rise of foundation models and the shortening of timelines to AGI). The debate is now more like Yud vs. Christiano/Cotra than Yud vs. Hanson.
It seems worth noting that the views and economic modeling you discuss here seem broadly in keeping with Christiano/Cotra (but with more agressive constants)
Yep! On both timelines and takeoff speeds I’d describe my views as “Like Ajeya Cotra’s and Tom Davidson’s but with different settings of some of the key variables.”
It seems worth noting that the views and economic modeling you discuss here seem broadly in keeping with Christiano/Cotra (but with more agressive constants)
Yep! On both timelines and takeoff speeds I’d describe my views as “Like Ajeya Cotra’s and Tom Davidson’s but with different settings of some of the key variables.”