I don’t know much about chess, so maybe this is wrong, but I would tend to think of Elo ratings as being more like a logarithmic scale of ability than like a linear scale of ability. In the sense that e.g. probability of winning changes exponentially with Elo difference, so a linear trend on an Elo graph translates to an exponential trend in competitiveness. “The chances of an AI solving the tasks better than a human are increasing exponentially” sounds more like fast takeoff than slow takeoff to me.
I think everyone in the discussion expects AI progress to be at least exponentially fast. See all of Paul’s mention of hyperbolic growth — that’s faster than an exponential.
The discussion is more about continuous vs discontinuous takeoff, or centralised vs decentralised takeoff. (The slow/fast terminology isn’t great.)
I don’t know much about chess, so maybe this is wrong, but I would tend to think of Elo ratings as being more like a logarithmic scale of ability than like a linear scale of ability. In the sense that e.g. probability of winning changes exponentially with Elo difference, so a linear trend on an Elo graph translates to an exponential trend in competitiveness. “The chances of an AI solving the tasks better than a human are increasing exponentially” sounds more like fast takeoff than slow takeoff to me.
I think everyone in the discussion expects AI progress to be at least exponentially fast. See all of Paul’s mention of hyperbolic growth — that’s faster than an exponential.
The discussion is more about continuous vs discontinuous takeoff, or centralised vs decentralised takeoff. (The slow/fast terminology isn’t great.)