The person in the 2nd Sam Harris podcast on Covid-19 seemed to say that the evidence by now indicates Remdesivir is less than 50% likely to work out, mostly because it doesn’t seem to do enough for its side effect profile. Do you have thoughts on that?
(Of course, “less than 50%” could still be really promising overall!)
(My impression of the podcast guest was quite negative in general, but on this particular topic I saw no reason why he’d be mistaken.)
I don’t see him saying that. I didn’t listen to the podcast, but I used speech-to-text to search. Every youtube video uploaded these days has a transcript. On a computer (not phone) click on the three dots under the video to the right of share/save and choose “open transcript.” I looked at the 16 times he mentioned antivirals. Speech-to-text isn’t good enough to search for “remdesivir,” but it was mentioned at 44 minutes. (I also searched for side effects. This is more a concern for vaccines given to healthy people than antivirals given to people who are already sick.)
(Also, castbox is a podcast app that has transcripts of podcasts not on youtube, but I haven’t had a lot of luck with it.)
Actually, do you know at what point during the podcast he makes that forecast? I haven’t been able to find a quote from him anywhere else online about that, and I don’t have time to listen to the whole thing for the next few days.
The person in the 2nd Sam Harris podcast on Covid-19 seemed to say that the evidence by now indicates Remdesivir is less than 50% likely to work out, mostly because it doesn’t seem to do enough for its side effect profile. Do you have thoughts on that?
(Of course, “less than 50%” could still be really promising overall!)
(My impression of the podcast guest was quite negative in general, but on this particular topic I saw no reason why he’d be mistaken.)
I don’t see him saying that. I didn’t listen to the podcast, but I used speech-to-text to search. Every youtube video uploaded these days has a transcript. On a computer (not phone) click on the three dots under the video to the right of share/save and choose “open transcript.” I looked at the 16 times he mentioned antivirals. Speech-to-text isn’t good enough to search for “remdesivir,” but it was mentioned at 44 minutes. (I also searched for side effects. This is more a concern for vaccines given to healthy people than antivirals given to people who are already sick.)
(Also, castbox is a podcast app that has transcripts of podcasts not on youtube, but I haven’t had a lot of luck with it.)
Actually, do you know at what point during the podcast he makes that forecast? I haven’t been able to find a quote from him anywhere else online about that, and I don’t have time to listen to the whole thing for the next few days.
I don’t remember the place, but maybe if someone sees this comment and wanted to listen to the podcast anyway, they can report once they find it!
I’m sure Amesh Adalja knows better than me! Thanks for the link.