Seems worth mentioning SOTA, which is https://futuresearch.ai/. Based on the competence & epistemics of Futuresearch team and their bot get very strong but not superhuman performance, roll to disbelieve this demo is actually way better and predicts future events at superhuman level.
Also I think it is a generally bad to not mention or compare to SOTA but just cite your own prior work. Shame.
Seems worth mentioning SOTA, which is https://futuresearch.ai/. Based on the competence & epistemics of Futuresearch team and their bot get very strong but not superhuman performance, roll to disbelieve this demo is actually way better and predicts future events at superhuman level.
Also I think it is a generally bad to not mention or compare to SOTA but just cite your own prior work. Shame.
Do they have an evaluation result in Brier score, by back testing on resolved questions, similar to what is done in the literature?
(They have a pic with “expected Brier score”, which seems to be based on some kind of simulation?)
Futuresearch bets on Manifold.
Thanks! This seems the best way to eval the bot anyway!