you can replace a lot of human labor. But an equivalent replacement for physical space or raw materials for manufacturing does not exist.
There is a lot of space and raw materials in the universe. AI thinks faster, so technological progress happens faster, which opens up access to new resources shortly after takeoff. Months to years, not decades to centuries.
If, for the sake of argument, we suppose that goods that provide no benefit to humans have no value, then land in space will be less valuable than land on earth until humans settle outside of earth (which I don’t believe will happen in the next few decades).
Mining raw materials from space and using them to create value on earth is feasible, but again I’m less confident that this will happen (in an efficient-enough manner that it eliminates scarcity) in as short of a timeframe as you predict.
However, I am sympathetic to the general argument here that smart-enough AI is able to find more efficient ways of manufacturing or better approaches to obtaining plentiful energy/materials. How extreme this is will depend on “takeoff speed” which you seem to think will be faster than I do.
land in space will be less valuable than land on earth until humans settle outside of earth (which I don’t believe will happen in the next few decades).
Why would it take so long? Is this assuming no ASI?
There is a lot of space and raw materials in the universe. AI thinks faster, so technological progress happens faster, which opens up access to new resources shortly after takeoff. Months to years, not decades to centuries.
If, for the sake of argument, we suppose that goods that provide no benefit to humans have no value, then land in space will be less valuable than land on earth until humans settle outside of earth (which I don’t believe will happen in the next few decades).
Mining raw materials from space and using them to create value on earth is feasible, but again I’m less confident that this will happen (in an efficient-enough manner that it eliminates scarcity) in as short of a timeframe as you predict.
However, I am sympathetic to the general argument here that smart-enough AI is able to find more efficient ways of manufacturing or better approaches to obtaining plentiful energy/materials. How extreme this is will depend on “takeoff speed” which you seem to think will be faster than I do.
Why would it take so long? Is this assuming no ASI?