I think that analogy maps quite well. In both cases we have a net retention of energy—measured in temperature on earth and in weight in humans. I believe there’s the possibility that I’m writing about the metabolic equivalent of CO2 in humans here (both graphs go up and to the right with industrialization). See, we know that the net balance of calories in humans or joules retained on earth is going up. The question is why. I think the answer to “why” is CO2/possibly vegetable oils. As for “how,” from what I understand that is the source of your exasperation—in climate change the answer to “how” is the greenhouse effect—the mechanism. What is it about these substances that cause the energy to be retained? As for this theory, there are a many reasons that I don’t fully and completely understand, so I didn’t want to muse on about them in the OP. I am certainly at fault for your exasperation here.
The following are studies (not an exhaustive list) followed by what I would consider the statements that most closely map to “mechanism”
Here is perhaps the most direct answer for weight gain
Here we posited that excessive dietary intake of linoleic acid (LA), the precursor of AA, would induce endocannabinoid hyperactivity and promote obesity.
Here’s one for inflammation, which from what I know is quite correlated with weight gain:
Omega-6 (n-6) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) (e.g., arachidonic acid (AA)) and omega-3 (n-3) PUFA (e.g., eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA)) are precursors to potent lipid mediator signalling molecules, termed “eicosanoids,” which have important roles in the regulation of inflammation.
Metabolomics analysis of the liver showed an increased accumulation of PUFAs and their metabolites as well as γ-tocopherol, but a decrease in cholesterol in SO-HFD. Liver transcriptomics analysis revealed a global dysregulation of cytochrome P450 (Cyp) genes in SO-HFD versus HFD livers, most notably in the Cyp3a and Cyp2c families. Other genes involved in obesity (e.g., Cidec, Cd36), diabetes (Igfbp1), inflammation (Cd63), mitochondrial function (Pdk4) and cancer (H19) were also upregulated by the soybean oil diet. Taken together, our results indicate that in mice a diet high in soybean oil is more detrimental to metabolic health than a diet high in fructose or coconut oil.
And finally in terms I can really understand intuitively:
The primary fatty acid in most vegetable oils is linoleic acid, a type of omega-6 fat. The omega-6 content of vegetable oils is what makes them so problematic.
Omega-6 fats, while necessary in extremely small amounts, contribute to general inflammation when eaten in excess. While chronic inflammation is cited as a source of many of the diseases we face today [1], it’s just the tip of the iceberg. The unstable, reactive properties of dietary omega-6 create a host of other downstream effects that have been causally linked to poor health and chronic disease, including heart disease, the leading cause of death in the world [2].
Now that seems like a wall of proof, and if it were in defense of greenhouse gases, you would probably have good cause to be mostly convinced. From what I can tell in nutrition, that is probably not the takeaway that you should have, necessarily. You could probably make just as convincing a case against saturated fats or fructose or something. I am partial to a somewhat “zoomed out” approach, I’d love to just see more studies of humans over long periods of time eating vegetable oil in good experimental conditions. As I said, there’s a disproportionate lack of them, especially given how prominent they now are in our diet. Those sources were strong for this theory too. Here’s one, PDF warning.
Only a handful of randomized controlled trials have ever causally tested the traditional diet-heart hypothesis. The results for two of these trials were not fully reported. Our recovery and 2013 publication of previously unpublished data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study (SDHS, 1966-73) belatedly showed that replacement of saturated fat with vegetable oil rich in linoleic acid significantly increased the risks of death from coronary heart disease and all causes, despite lowering serum cholesterol.14 Our recovery of unpublished documents and raw data from another diet-heart trial, the Minnesota Coronary Experiment, provided us with an opportunity to further evaluate this issue.
I do think I was mistaken to not have included this stuff, I kind of assumed people would read the sources but that probably didn’t happen lol
My primary claim was that we already understand the main proximate cause of the obesity pandemic. It has something to do with people maintaining calorie a calorie surplus—the difference between our calorie intake and our energy expenditure.
If I understand your reply correctly, you are essentially saying, “vegetable oils likely cause our bodies to retain extra calories than they otherwise would.” A reasonable conjecture, but let me offer another.
Assume that our bodies do not retain more or fewer calories depending on what we eat. Instead, our calorie surplus is measured reasonably well by the number on the nutrition label. Then, naturally, the problem is simply that we’re eating too much.
Of course, this theory leaves a lot to be explained, such as why we’re eating so much in the first place. However, we also have a simple answer for that: modern processed food generally tastes good, gets people hooked, and causes us to have more frequent and more intense food cravings. As far as Occam is concerned, I don’t see why we need much more than this theory.
That’s certainly fair enough! I really don’t think that I have any qualms with your logic, my reason for posting and exploring this is partially that maintaining a calorie surplus didn’t seem to be a very satisfactory answer, analogous in your argument to saying we know the proximate cause of climate change because more energy is coming in than out—and that opinion was shared by a lot of other people here. In particular, the mysteries of the Peery paper were definitely getting some discussion going.
I’d refer you to the comments on this post—I think a lot of others said it better than I why we at least think this merits more discussion.
Sounds like both of you think: something in modern food is causing our weight set point to go up.
You think it’s the taste, he thinks it’s some novel chemical.
I say ‘weight set point to go up’ rather than ‘we eat too much’, because I think you both agree that after a successful diet, weight goes quickly back up to where it was, rather than slowly like it would do if we just carried on eating too much.
I think that analogy maps quite well. In both cases we have a net retention of energy—measured in temperature on earth and in weight in humans. I believe there’s the possibility that I’m writing about the metabolic equivalent of CO2 in humans here (both graphs go up and to the right with industrialization). See, we know that the net balance of calories in humans or joules retained on earth is going up. The question is why. I think the answer to “why” is CO2/possibly vegetable oils. As for “how,” from what I understand that is the source of your exasperation—in climate change the answer to “how” is the greenhouse effect—the mechanism. What is it about these substances that cause the energy to be retained? As for this theory, there are a many reasons that I don’t fully and completely understand, so I didn’t want to muse on about them in the OP. I am certainly at fault for your exasperation here.
The following are studies (not an exhaustive list) followed by what I would consider the statements that most closely map to “mechanism”
Here is perhaps the most direct answer for weight gain
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22334255/
Here’s one for inflammation, which from what I know is quite correlated with weight gain:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22570770/
Here’s the really crazy study in mice:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31912136/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26200659/
And finally in terms I can really understand intuitively:
https://www.jeffnobbs.com/posts/why-is-vegetable-oil-unhealthy
Now that seems like a wall of proof, and if it were in defense of greenhouse gases, you would probably have good cause to be mostly convinced. From what I can tell in nutrition, that is probably not the takeaway that you should have, necessarily. You could probably make just as convincing a case against saturated fats or fructose or something. I am partial to a somewhat “zoomed out” approach, I’d love to just see more studies of humans over long periods of time eating vegetable oil in good experimental conditions. As I said, there’s a disproportionate lack of them, especially given how prominent they now are in our diet. Those sources were strong for this theory too. Here’s one, PDF warning.
https://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i1246.full.pdf+html
I do think I was mistaken to not have included this stuff, I kind of assumed people would read the sources but that probably didn’t happen lol
My primary claim was that we already understand the main proximate cause of the obesity pandemic. It has something to do with people maintaining calorie a calorie surplus—the difference between our calorie intake and our energy expenditure.
If I understand your reply correctly, you are essentially saying, “vegetable oils likely cause our bodies to retain extra calories than they otherwise would.” A reasonable conjecture, but let me offer another.
Assume that our bodies do not retain more or fewer calories depending on what we eat. Instead, our calorie surplus is measured reasonably well by the number on the nutrition label. Then, naturally, the problem is simply that we’re eating too much.
Of course, this theory leaves a lot to be explained, such as why we’re eating so much in the first place. However, we also have a simple answer for that: modern processed food generally tastes good, gets people hooked, and causes us to have more frequent and more intense food cravings. As far as Occam is concerned, I don’t see why we need much more than this theory.
That’s certainly fair enough! I really don’t think that I have any qualms with your logic, my reason for posting and exploring this is partially that maintaining a calorie surplus didn’t seem to be a very satisfactory answer, analogous in your argument to saying we know the proximate cause of climate change because more energy is coming in than out—and that opinion was shared by a lot of other people here. In particular, the mysteries of the Peery paper were definitely getting some discussion going.
I’d refer you to the comments on this post—I think a lot of others said it better than I why we at least think this merits more discussion.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fD8jXHvLJrEdSLQrE/obesity-epidemic-explained-in-0-9-subway-cookies
Sounds like both of you think: something in modern food is causing our weight set point to go up.
You think it’s the taste, he thinks it’s some novel chemical.
I say ‘weight set point to go up’ rather than ‘we eat too much’, because I think you both agree that after a successful diet, weight goes quickly back up to where it was, rather than slowly like it would do if we just carried on eating too much.
Is this fair?