The absolute size of a reference class only gives the problem statement for an individual decision some altruistic/paternalistic tilt, which can fail to change it. Greater relative size of a reference class increases the decision’s relative importance compared to other decisions, which on the margin should pull some effort away from the other decisions.
That the effective multiplier due to acausal coordination is smaller for non-voting decisions doesn’t inform the question of whether the argument applies to non-voting decisions. The argument may be ignored in the decision algorithm only if the reference class is always small or about the same size for different decisions.
Yeah, I agree with all of that. (I didn’t realize the point about the relative sizes of reference classes until I read your reply to habryka more carefully.)
Perhaps another way to make the point about the argument for voting being stronger is that it affects your decisionmaking even if you are not altruistic. Here by stronger I mean that the argument is “more robust” or “less suspicious”.
Sure, for voting the effect on decision making is greater. I’m just suspicious of this whole idea of acausal impact, and moderate observations about effect size don’t help with that confusion. I don’t think it can apply to voting without applying to other things, so the quantitative distinction doesn’t point in a particular direction on correctness of the overall idea.
The absolute size of a reference class only gives the problem statement for an individual decision some altruistic/paternalistic tilt, which can fail to change it. Greater relative size of a reference class increases the decision’s relative importance compared to other decisions, which on the margin should pull some effort away from the other decisions.
That the effective multiplier due to acausal coordination is smaller for non-voting decisions doesn’t inform the question of whether the argument applies to non-voting decisions. The argument may be ignored in the decision algorithm only if the reference class is always small or about the same size for different decisions.
Yeah, I agree with all of that. (I didn’t realize the point about the relative sizes of reference classes until I read your reply to habryka more carefully.)
Perhaps another way to make the point about the argument for voting being stronger is that it affects your decisionmaking even if you are not altruistic. Here by stronger I mean that the argument is “more robust” or “less suspicious”.
Sure, for voting the effect on decision making is greater. I’m just suspicious of this whole idea of acausal impact, and moderate observations about effect size don’t help with that confusion. I don’t think it can apply to voting without applying to other things, so the quantitative distinction doesn’t point in a particular direction on correctness of the overall idea.