I didn’t say anything about temperature prediction, and I’d also like to see any other method (intuition based or otherwise) do better than the current best mathematical models here. It seems unlikely to me that the trends in that graph will continue arbitrarily far.
Thanks for the pointer to that paper, the abstract makes me think there’s a sort of slow-acting self-reinforcing feedback loop between predictive error minimisation via improving modelling and via improving the economy itself.
I didn’t say anything about temperature prediction, and I’d also like to see any other method (intuition based or otherwise) do better than the current best mathematical models here. It seems unlikely to me that the trends in that graph will continue arbitrarily far.
Yeah, that was my claim.