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2020′s Prediction Thread

bgold30 Dec 2019 23:18 UTC

48 points

77 comments1 min readLW link

2010s Predictions Review

Tofly30 Dec 2019 21:47 UTC

47 points

10 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Looking for non-AI people to work on AGI risks

otto.barten30 Dec 2019 20:41 UTC

10 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

A humane solution was never intended.

Kolya30 Dec 2019 20:41 UTC

−17 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Austin LW: Survey for far-traveling attendees Jan-Feb 2020

jchan30 Dec 2019 15:40 UTC

2 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Imperfect Competition

Zvi30 Dec 2019 12:20 UTC

73 points

8 comments10 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Speaking Truth to Power Is a Schelling Point

Zack_M_Davis30 Dec 2019 6:12 UTC

52 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

l

Sunny from QAD30 Dec 2019 5:23 UTC

3 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

Making decisions under moral uncertainty

MichaelA30 Dec 2019 1:49 UTC

21 points

26 comments17 min readLW link

CFAR’s 2019 Fundraiser

Timothy Telleen-Lawton30 Dec 2019 0:03 UTC

32 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Reality vanishes in a puff of logic

monktastic29 Dec 2019 21:55 UTC

−3 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Why is the mail so much better than the DMV?

Logan Zoellner29 Dec 2019 18:55 UTC

30 points

13 comments2 min readLW link

Judgment Day: Insights from ‘Judgment in Managerial Decision Making’

TurnTrout29 Dec 2019 18:03 UTC

24 points

6 comments7 min readLW link

Phage therapy in a post-antibiotics world

ChristianKl29 Dec 2019 17:03 UTC

22 points

14 comments2 min readLW link

Perfect Competition

Zvi29 Dec 2019 13:30 UTC

54 points

29 comments7 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Self and No-Self

Vaniver29 Dec 2019 6:15 UTC

48 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Good goals for leveling up?

wolverdude29 Dec 2019 5:25 UTC

11 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay

jefftk29 Dec 2019 3:20 UTC

76 points

72 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What are the most exciting developments from non-Europe and/or non-Northern-Hemisphere?

Raemon29 Dec 2019 1:30 UTC

13 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Safe exploration and corrigibility

evhub28 Dec 2019 23:12 UTC

17 points

4 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What is your recommended statistics textbook for a beginner?

Rudi C28 Dec 2019 21:19 UTC

5 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Stupidity and Dishonesty Explain Each Other Away

Zack_M_Davis28 Dec 2019 19:21 UTC

38 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

Measuring Epistemic Rationality

edoarad28 Dec 2019 18:46 UTC

6 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

An Emergency Fund for Effective Altruists

bice28 Dec 2019 18:02 UTC

9 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How was your decade?

namespace28 Dec 2019 17:14 UTC

26 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

(www.youtube.com)

Moloch Hasn’t Won

Zvi28 Dec 2019 16:30 UTC

186 points

40 comments7 min readLW link 1 review

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] Has there been a “memetic collapse”?

Eli Tyre28 Dec 2019 5:36 UTC

32 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Out in the Great Northwest

jefftk28 Dec 2019 3:40 UTC

6 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Cambridge LW/SC Meetup

NoSignalNoNoise28 Dec 2019 3:07 UTC

6 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Meditation Retreat: Immoral Mazes Sequence Introduction

Zvi28 Dec 2019 0:50 UTC

89 points

16 comments4 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Critiquing “What failure looks like”

Grue_Slinky27 Dec 2019 23:59 UTC

35 points

6 comments3 min readLW link

More on polio and randomized clinical trials

jasoncrawford27 Dec 2019 21:07 UTC

18 points

1 comment3 min readLW link

(rootsofprogress.org)

Vaccine… Help? Deprogramming? Something?

Golden Delicious27 Dec 2019 20:27 UTC

4 points

27 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Expected utility and repeated choices

Marco Discendenti27 Dec 2019 20:26 UTC

9 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

We need to revisit AI rewriting its source code

ryan_b27 Dec 2019 18:27 UTC

11 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

Firming Up Not-Lying Around Its Edge-Cases Is Less Broadly Useful Than One Might Initially Think

Zack_M_Davis27 Dec 2019 5:09 UTC

127 points

43 comments8 min readLW link 2 reviews

[Question] What spiritual experiences have you had?

Gordon Seidoh Worley27 Dec 2019 3:41 UTC

22 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

Naming Rooms

jefftk27 Dec 2019 2:40 UTC

8 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Link: Does the following seem like a reasonable brief summary of the key disagreements regarding AI risk?

Davidmanheim26 Dec 2019 20:14 UTC

11 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

New paper: (When) is Truth-telling Favored in AI debate?

VojtaKovarik26 Dec 2019 19:59 UTC

32 points

7 comments5 min readLW link

(medium.com)

[Question] Finding a quote: “proof by contradiction is the closest math comes to irony”

Hazard26 Dec 2019 17:40 UTC

8 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Talking Through A Fear of Death

jesseduffield26 Dec 2019 5:23 UTC

6 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

Gortha Ick

jefftk26 Dec 2019 3:20 UTC

9 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

[AN #78] Formalizing power and instrumental convergence, and the end-of-year AI safety charity comparison

Rohin Shah26 Dec 2019 1:10 UTC

26 points

10 comments9 min readLW link

(mailchi.mp)

Get a Life

Stanislav Kozlovski26 Dec 2019 0:51 UTC

0 points

5 comments6 min readLW link

Values Assimilation Premortem

wolverdude26 Dec 2019 0:30 UTC

16 points

10 comments4 min readLW link

Understanding Machine Learning (III)

Rafael Harth25 Dec 2019 18:55 UTC

16 points

2 comments11 min readLW link

12020: a fine future for these holidays

Stuart_Armstrong25 Dec 2019 15:01 UTC

41 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Absolutely Winning Bridge Hands

jefftk25 Dec 2019 2:50 UTC

9 points

4 comments3 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Another AI Winter?

PeterMcCluskey25 Dec 2019 0:58 UTC

47 points

14 comments4 min readLW link

(www.bayesianinvestor.com)