I’d add step 0: have Singulairty Institute members come for a long visit near you, thus serving as the impetus of the meetup :-)
Vladimir_Gritsenko
Karma: 159
You can move to Israel :-)
Jerusalem meetup Nov. 20
I accept this correction as well. Let me rephrase: the probability, while being positive, is so small as to be on the magnitude of being able to reverse time flow and to sample the world state at arbitrary points.
This doesn’t actually change the gist of my argument, but does remind me to double-check myself for nitpicking possibilities...
You are strictly correct, but after brain disintegration, probability of revival is infinitesimal. You should have challenged me on the taxes bit instead :-)
Pardon me, now I’m the one feeling perplexed: where did I screw up?
First, the only certainties in life are death and taxes. Cryonics aside, we should talk in probabilities, not certainties, and this is true of pretty much everything, including god, heliocentrism, etc.
Second, cryonics may have a small chance of succeeding—say, 1% (number pulled out of thin air) - but that’s still enormously better than the alternative 0% chance of being revived after dieing in any other way. Dieing in the line of duty or after great accomplishment is similar to leaving a huge estate behind—it’ll help somebody, just not you.
Third, re senile dementia, there is the possibility of committing suicide and undergoing cryonics. (Terry Pratchett spoke of a possible assisted suicide, although I see no indication he considered cryonics.)
If cryonics feels like a wash, that’s a problem with our emotions. The math is pretty solid.
Agreed.
One caveat: it’s great to want to be rationalist about all things, but let him without sin cast the first stone. So much of the community’s energies have gone into analyzing akrasia—understanding that behavior X is rational and proper yet not doing it—that it appears hypocritical and counter-productive to reject members because they haven’t yet reached all the right conclusions. After all, MrHen did mark religion for later contemplation.
Boris Strugatsky is probably chuckling to himself) right now.
Clarity check: “trumps” = “is (normatively) more important than”?
Yes.
will be really confusing if/when that entry drops off the front page.
Hehe :-) if you propose a less confusing quip, I’ll edit it in.
Yes, that would be better, but as yourself note, it’s a big change that’s unlikely to happen in one go. On the other hand, specialized journals are not a novelty, and considering that at least some folks took that specific specialization up, it appears to be more an issue of advertising than invention.
But nobody said this problem should be attacked on just one front. More (different) attempts mean more chances of success, no?
At least in the second journal (of ecology and evolutionary biology), they do say they accept replication studies.
Cool, thanks! (Also, Google-fu fail on my part.)
One other journal I just found (although no publications there yet): http://www.arjournals.com/ojs/
If this is representative, then it’s both encouraging (at least a few folks are taking the problem seriously) and discouraging (they’re too few). At least now there’s something concrete to evangelize :-)
The Journal of (Failed) Replication Studies
For what it’s worth, I offer this summary of a study about Chinese and American education. Even though Chinese students know a heck of a lot more science, they can’t reason scientifically any better than their American counterparts.
I confess I don’t know a lot about China, and so my preference to live in almost any Western country and not in China may be biased by ignorance, but… would you prefer to live in China, or another authoritarian state but whose management would be experts in various fields? Do you honestly think such a state would be better at various important parameters of societal welfare?
A final point: while congressfolk may be less competent than we might wish, actual state managers—civil servants in high positions—are often accredited veterans in their fields.
Novel information. I liked your post “on dollars, utility, and crack cocaine”, for example.
Downvoted.
As a gut feeling, I agree with the sentiment. But… Most if not all of us agree that neither politicians nor voters are as educated or as rational as they should be, and we voice our agreements frequently. Is this the best use of our time? Considering that many folks have called for “thinking-based” education for a long time now, we’re not even innovating. So, what are we doing? Reinforcing virtually uncontroversial beliefs? Priming our own private affective death spiral?
I can’t be the only guy to generate the 410 hits from Israel… if I am, that is very sad.
Ampakines are a new class of compounds known to enhance attention span and alertness, and facilitate learning and memory. …
Unlike earlier stimulants (e.g. caffeine, methylphenidate (Ritalin), and the amphetamines), ampakines do not seem to have unpleasant, long-lasting side effects such as sleeplessness.
Apparently, only the military is interested in its mind-enhancing effects. Any chemists here interested in a start-up? ;-)
Actually, I was wondering that myself! I differentiate myself by the fact that I’m among the very first Vladimirs around here. (I’ve been an OB reader for three years now, I think.)