The habitability of planets around longer lived stars is a crux for those using SSA, but not SIA or decision theoretic approaches with total utilitarianism.
I show in this section that if one is certain that there are planets habitable for at least , then SSA with the reference class of observers in pre-grabby intelligent civilizations gives ~30% on us being alone in the observable universe. For this gives ~10% on being alone.
I’m not sure what you’re saying here. Are you saying that in general, a [total][average] utilitarian wagers for [large][small] populations?
Yep! (only if we become grabby though)
What’s your reference for the 500 million lifespan remaining? I followed Hanson et al. in using in using the end of the oxygenated atmosphere as the end of the lifespan.
Yep, I agree. I don’t do the SSA update with reference class of observers-on-planets-of-total-habitability-X-Gy but agree that if I did, this 500 My difference would make a difference.