Could your model also include a possibility of the SETI-attack: grabby aliens sending malicious radio signals with AI description ahead of their arrival?
I briefly discuss this in Chapter 4. My tentative conclusion is that we have little to worry about in the next hundred or thousand years, especially (which I do not mention) if we think malicious grabby aliens to try particularly hard to have their signals discovered.
My view is that the signal is constantly emitted, so GC is in our past light cone, but it may be very remote so we still are not able to detect the signal. But if they control a large part of the visible part of the sky, they will be able to create something visible—so they either don’t want or not exist.
I briefly discuss this in Chapter 4. My tentative conclusion is that we have little to worry about in the next hundred or thousand years, especially (which I do not mention) if we think malicious grabby aliens to try particularly hard to have their signals discovered.
My view is that the signal is constantly emitted, so GC is in our past light cone, but it may be very remote so we still are not able to detect the signal. But if they control a large part of the visible part of the sky, they will be able to create something visible—so they either don’t want or not exist.