I added the ability to switch to the strong question! You can do it here.
River Lewis
Karma: 87
Thanks for pointing this out, and sorry for not monitoring the comments more closely. It was a rounding error—should be fixed now.
“Beginning of the end” doing some (/probably too much) heavy lifting there. I think it’s the inflection point in a process that will end with transhumanism. And my personal projected timeline is quite short, after that initial shift.
I’m planning to add an option for the strong AI question; I should probably just make it possible to point to arbitrary Metaculus predictions. That way someone could use a more direct transhumanism one, if they want.
Yeah, the fake precision is definitely silly, but I thought the ticking helped get across the underlying message (i.e. this timeline is most likely finite, and shorter than it may feel). This is more about that emotional reminder; Metaculus is obviously the best place for the full info, including crucial historical trends.
Okay, it should be significantly faster now!
I picked it because it has the most predictions and is frequently pointed to as an indicator of big shifts. But you’re right, I should work on adding an option to use the strong question instead; I can see why people might prefer that.
I’m so glad the idea resonates with you!
You’re exactly right about the slightly slow loading — it’s on my list to fix, but I wanted to get something out there. :)
Hey! Sorry the site was down so long; I accidentally let the payment lapse. It’s back up and should stay that way, if you’d still like to use it. I also added a page where you can toggle between the predictions.
But no worries if you’re happy with your own. :)
EDIT: I just realized you only posted this 2 days ago! I didn’t see your version before fixing the site; I had actually just logged in to update anyone who cared. :P