Ram Potham

My goal is to do work that counterfactually reduces AI risk from loss-of-control scenarios. My perspective is shaped by my experience as the founder of a VC-backed AI startup, which gave me a firsthand understanding of the urgent need for safety.

I have a B.S. in Artificial Intelligence from Carnegie Mellon and am currently a CBAI Fellow at MIT/​Harvard. My primary project is ForecastLabs, where I’m building predictive maps of the AI landscape to improve strategic foresight.

I subscribe to Crocker’s Rules and am especially interested to hear unsolicited constructive criticism. http://​​sl4.org/​​crocker.html—inspired by Daniel Kokotajlo.

(xkcd meme)

I Tested LLM Agents on Sim­ple Safety Rules. They Failed in Sur­pris­ing and In­for­ma­tive Ways.

• Ram PothamJun 25, 2025, 7:11 PM

  2 points

  0

  on: Fore­cast­ing AI Forecasting

  Thanks for the great post. As someone who builds these kinds of bots, I find this really interesting.

  One thought: I think the way we prompt and guide these AI models makes a huge difference in their forecasting accuracy. We’re still very new to figuring out the best techniques, so there’s a lot of room for improvement there.

  Because of that, the performance on benchmarks like ForecastBench might not show the full picture. Better scaffolds could unlock big gains quickly, so I lean toward an earlier date for AI reaching the level of top human forecasters.

  That’s why I’m paying closer attention to the Metaculus tournaments. They feel like a better test of what a well-guided AI can actually do.

• Ram PothamJun 18, 2025, 10:28 PM

  1 point

  0

  on: Ram Potham’s Shortform

  I’ve launched Forecast Labs, an organization focused on using AI forecasting to help reduce AI risk.

  Our initial results are promising. We have an AI model that is outperforming superforecasters on the Manifold Markets benchmark, as evaluated by ForecastBench. You can see a summary of the results at our website: https://​​www.forecastlabs.org/​​results.

  This is just the preliminary scaffolding, and there’s significant room for improvement. The long-term vision is to develop these AI forecasting capabilities to a point where we can construct large-scale causal models. These models would help identify the key decisions and interventions needed to navigate the challenges of advanced AI and minimize existential risk.

  I’m sharing this here to get feedback from the community and connect with others interested in this approach. The goal is to build powerful tools for foresight, and I believe that’s a critical component of the AI safety toolkit.

• Ram PothamMay 20, 2025, 4:42 PM

  1 point

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  on: Ram Potham’s Shortform

  Reading Resources for Technical AI Safety independent researchers upskilling to apply to roles:

  1. GabeM—Leveling up in AI Safety Research

  2. EA—Technical AI Safety

  3. Michael Aird: Write down Theory of Change

  4. Marius Hobbhahn—Advice for Independent Research

  5. Rohin Shah—Advice for AI Alignment Researchers

  6. gw—Working in Technical AI Safety

  7. Richard Ngo—AGI Safety Career Advice

  8. rmoehn—Be careful of failure modes

  9. Bilal Chughtai—Working at a frontier lab

  10. Upgradeable—Career Planning

  11. Neel Nanda—Improving Research Process

  12. Neel Nanda—Writing a Good Paper

  13. Ethan Perez—Tips for Empirical Alignment Research

  14. Ethan Perez—Empirical Research Workflows

  15. Gabe M—ML Research Advice

  16. Lewis Hommend—AI Safety PhD advice

  17. Adam Gleave—AI Safety PhD advice

  Application and Upskilling resources;

  1. Job Board

  2. Events and Training

• Ram PothamMay 7, 2025, 12:24 AM

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Max Harms’s comment on: 0. CAST: Cor­rigi­bil­ity as Sin­gu­lar Target

  I believe a recursively aligned AI model would be more aligned and safe than a corrigible model, although both would be susceptible to misuse.

  Why do you disagree with the above statement?

• Ram PothamMay 7, 2025, 12:19 AM

  2 points

  1

  in reply to: Max Harms’s comment on: 1. The CAST Strategy

  Thanks for the clarification, this makes sense! The key is the tradeoff with corrigibility.

• Ram PothamApr 25, 2025, 11:01 PM

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Stephen Fowler’s comment on: Why Should I As­sume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?

  Thanks, updated the comment to be more accurate

• Ram PothamApr 25, 2025, 10:48 PM

  1 point

  0

  AF

  on: 1. The CAST Strategy

  If you ask a corrigible agent to bring you a cup of coffee, it should confirm that you want a hot cup of simple, black coffee, then internally check to make sure that the cup won’t burn you, that nobody will be upset at the coffee being moved or consumed, that the coffee won’t be spilled, and so on. But it will also, after performing these checks, simply do what’s instructed. A corrigible agent’s actions should be straightforward, easy to reverse and abort, plainly visible, and comprehensible to a human who takes time to think about them. Corrigible agents proactively study themselves, honestly report their own thoughts, and point out ways in which they may have been poorly designed. A corrigible agent responds quickly and eagerly to corrections, and shuts itself down without protest when asked. Furthermore, small flaws and mistakes when building such an agent shouldn’t cause these behaviors to disappear, but rather the agent should gravitate towards an obvious, simple reference-point.

  Isn’t corrigibility still susceptible to power-seeking according to this definition? It wants to bring you a cup of coffee, it notices the chances of spillage are reduced if it has access to more coffee, so it becomes a coffee maximizer as in instrumental goal.

  Now, it is still corrigible, it does not hide it’s thought processes, it tells the human exactly what it is doing and why. But when the agent is doing millions of decisions and humans can only review so many thought processes (only so many humans will take the time to think about the agent’s actions), many decisions will fall through the crack and end up being misaligned.

  Is the goal to learn the human’s preferences through interaction then, and hope that it learns the preferences enough to know that power-seeking (and other harmful behaviors) are bad?

  The problem is, there could be harmful behaviors we haven’t thought of to train the AI in, and they are never corrected, so the AI proceeds with them.

  If so, can we define a corrigible agent that is actually what we want?

• Ram PothamApr 25, 2025, 10:08 PM

  3 points

  0

  on: 0. CAST: Cor­rigi­bil­ity as Sin­gu­lar Target

  How does corrigibility relate to recursive alignment? It seems like recursive alignment is also a good attractor—is it that you believe it is less tractable?

• Ram PothamApr 25, 2025, 10:07 PM

  1 point

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  in reply to: habryka’s comment on: 0. CAST: Cor­rigi­bil­ity as Sin­gu­lar Target

  What assumptions do you disagree with?

• Ram PothamApr 25, 2025, 6:00 PM

  1 point

  0

  on: Mak­ing AIs less likely to be spiteful

  Thanks for this insightful post! It clearly articulates a crucial point: focusing on specific failure modes like spite offers a potentially tractable path for reducing catastrophic risks, complementing broader alignment efforts.

  You’re right that interventions targeting spite – such as modifying training data (e.g., filtering human feedback exhibiting excessive retribution or outgroup animosity) or shaping interactions/​reward structures (e.g., avoiding selection based purely on relative performance in multi-agent environments, as discussed in the post) – aim directly at reducing the intrinsic motivation for agents to engage in harmful behaviors. This isn’t just about reducing generic competition; it’s about decreasing the likelihood that an agent values frustrating others’ preferences, potentially leading to costly conflict.

  Further exploration in this area could draw on research in:

  • Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) in Sequential Social Dilemmas

  • Open Problems in Cooperative AI

  Focusing on reducing specific negative motivations like spite seems like a pragmatic and potentially high-impact approach within the broader AI safety landscape.

• Ram PothamApr 25, 2025, 3:29 PM

  1 point

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  on: Im­pact, agency, and taste

  Appreciate the insights on how to maximize leveraged activities.

  With the planning fallacy making it very difficult to predict engineering timelines, how do top performers /​ managers create effective schedules and track progress against the schedule?

  I get the feeling that you are suggesting to create a Gantt chart, but from your experience, what practices do teams use to maximize progress in a project?

• Ram PothamApr 20, 2025, 4:04 PM

  16 points

  −10

  on: Why Should I As­sume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?

  Based on previous data, it’s plausible like CCP AGI will perform worse on safety benchmarks than US AGI. Take Cisco Harmbench evaluation results:

  • DeepSeek R1: Demonstrated a 100% failure rate in blocking harmful prompts according to Anthropic’s safety tests.

  • OpenAI GPT-4o: Showed an 86% failure rate in the same tests, indicating better but still concerning gaps in safety measures.

  • Meta Llama-3.1-405B: Had a 96% failure rate, performing slightly better than DeepSeek but worse than OpenAI.

  Though, if it was just CCP making AGI or just US making AGI it might be better because it’d reduce competitive pressures.

  But, due to competitive pressures and investments like Stargate, the AGI timeline is accelerated, and the first AGI model may not perform well on safety benchmarks.

• Ram PothamApr 19, 2025, 7:24 PM

  2 points

  3

  in reply to: jacquesthibs’s comment on: jacquesthibs’s Shortform

  It seems like a somewhat natural but unfortunate next step. At Epoch AI, they see massive future market in AI automation and have a better understanding of evals and timelines, so now they aim to capitalize it.

AI Con­trol Meth­ods Liter­a­ture Review

• Ram PothamApr 11, 2025, 9:32 PM

  1 point

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  on: The case for en­sur­ing that pow­er­ful AIs are controlled

  To clarify, is the optimal approach the following?

  1. AI Control for early transformative AI

  2. Controlled AI accelerate AI Safety, create automated AI Safety Researcher

  3. Hope we get ASI aligned

  If so, what are currently the most promising approaches for AI control on transformative AI?

• Ram PothamApr 11, 2025, 5:35 PM

  1 point

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  on: Ram Potham’s Shortform

  Memory in AI Agents can cause a large security risk. Without memory, it’s easier to red-team LLMs for safety. But once they are fine-tuned (a form of encoding memory), misalignment can be introduced.

  According to AI Safety Atlas, most scaffolding approaches for memory provide

  a way for AI to access a vast repository of knowledge and use this information to construct more informed responses. However, this approach may not be the most elegant due to its reliance on external data sources and complex retrieval mechanisms. A potentially more seamless and integrated solution could involve utilizing the neural network’s weights as dynamic memory, constantly evolving and updating based on the tasks performed by the network.

  We need ways to ensure safety in powerful agents with memory or not introduce memory modules at all. Otherwise, agents are constantly learning and can find motivations not aligned with human volition.

  Any thoughts on ensuring safety in agents that can update their memory?

• Ram PothamApr 10, 2025, 8:28 PM

  1 point

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  on: Ram Potham’s Shortform

  I argue that the optimal ethical stance is to become a rational Bodhisattva: a synthesis of effective altruism, two‑level utilitarianism, and the Bodhisattva ideal.

  1. Effective altruism insists on doing the most good per unit of resource, but can demand extreme sacrifices (e.g., donating almost all disposable income).

  2. Two‑level utilitarianism lets us follow welfare‑promoting rules in daily life and switch to explicit cost‑benefit calculations when rules conflict. Yet it offers little emotional motivation.

  3. The Bodhisattva ideal roots altruism in felt interdependence: the world’s suffering is one’s own. It supplies deep motivation and inner peace, but gives no algorithm for choosing the most beneficial act.

  A rational Bodhisattva combines the strengths and cancels the weaknesses:

  • Motivation: Like a Bodhisattva, they experience others’ suffering as their own, so compassion is effortless and durable.

  • Method: Using reason and evidence (from effective altruism and two‑level utilitarianism), they pick the action that maximizes overall benefit.

  • Flexibility: They apply the “middle way,” recognizing that different compassionate choices can be permissible when values collide.

  Illustration

  Your grandparent needs $50,000 for a life‑saving treatment, but the same money could save ten strangers through a GiveWell charity.

  • A strict effective altruist/​utilitarian would donate to GiveWell.

  • A purely sentimental agent might fund the treatment.

  • The rational Bodhisattva weighs both outcomes, also including duties into the calculation, acts from compassion, and accepts the result without regret. In most cases they will choose the option with the greatest net benefit, but they can act otherwise when a compassionate rule or relational duty justifies it.

  Thus, the rational Bodhisattva unites rigorous impact with deep inner peace.

• Ram PothamApr 9, 2025, 4:38 PM

  1 point

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  on: The Lens That Sees Its Flaws

  I wonder why evolution has selected for this flawed lens and why decision-making shortcuts are selected for. It seems to me that a better picture of reality we have, the greater ability we have to survive and reproduce.

• Ram PothamApr 8, 2025, 8:14 PM

  1 point

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  in reply to: jsd’s comment on: Ram Potham’s Shortform

  This is great! Would like to see a continually updating public leaderboard of this.