Great prediction! It feels pretty insane to see this being predicted in 2021. In hindsight there are some oversights, for example I feel like the whole year 2023 can probably be condensed a bit, 2024 seems to also fit to 2023 in many aspects. Honestly its also astonishing how well you predicted the hype cycle.
What I truly wonder is what your prediction would be now? After all a few major shifts in landscape came up within the last half year or so, namely open source reaching quite a high level relative to SOTA public models, compute turning out to be the bottleneck more than anything else, inference time, the hype being quite divergent between the biggest and lowest hype—in some parts it seems to completely collapse and in some parts it seems to be over the moon. In that regard some comment prediction about programmers is quite interesting, they really are not fans of AI anymore, I dare not say out of fear they will be getting replaced though, more like they refuse to be scared and just claim its worse than them so there is no need to be scared. Timelines for AGI, or whatever you want to call superhuman general AIs, which I think are plausible seem to consolidate towards 2027. Do you agree with that?
Great prediction! It feels pretty insane to see this being predicted in 2021. In hindsight there are some oversights, for example I feel like the whole year 2023 can probably be condensed a bit, 2024 seems to also fit to 2023 in many aspects. Honestly its also astonishing how well you predicted the hype cycle.
What I truly wonder is what your prediction would be now? After all a few major shifts in landscape came up within the last half year or so, namely open source reaching quite a high level relative to SOTA public models, compute turning out to be the bottleneck more than anything else, inference time, the hype being quite divergent between the biggest and lowest hype—in some parts it seems to completely collapse and in some parts it seems to be over the moon. In that regard some comment prediction about programmers is quite interesting, they really are not fans of AI anymore, I dare not say out of fear they will be getting replaced though, more like they refuse to be scared and just claim its worse than them so there is no need to be scared. Timelines for AGI, or whatever you want to call superhuman general AIs, which I think are plausible seem to consolidate towards 2027. Do you agree with that?