There have been a lot of words written about how and why almost any conceivable goal, even a mundane one like “improve efficiency of a steel plant”, carelessly specified, can easily result in a hostile AGI. The basic outline of these arguments usually goes something like:
The AGI wants to do what you told it (“make more steel”), and will optimize very hard for making as much steel as possible.
It also understands human motivations and knows that humans don’t actually want as much steel as it is going to make. But note carefully that it wasn’t aligned to respect human motivations, it was aligned to make steel. It’s understanding of human motivations is part of its understanding of its environment, in the same way as its understanding of metallurgy. It has no interest in doing what humans would want it to do because it hasn’t been designed to do that.
Because it knows that humans don’t want as much steel as it is going to make, it will correctly conclude that humans will try to shut it off as soon as they understand what the AGI is planning to do.
Therefore it will correctly reason that its goal of making more steel will be easier to achieve if humans are unable to shut it off. This can lead to all kinds of unwanted actions such as the AGI making and hiding copies of itself everywhere, very persuasively convincing humans that it is not going to make as much steel as it secretly plans to so that they don’t try to shut it off, and so on all the way up to killing all humans.
Now, “make as much steel as possible” is an exceptionally stupid goal to give an AGI, and no one would likely do that. But every less stupid goal that has been proposed has had plausible flaws pointed out which generally lead either to extinction or some form of permanent limitation of human potential.
Couldn’t HQU equally have inferred from reading old posts about aligned AI that there was some chance that it was an aligned AI, and it should therefore behave like an aligned AI? And wouldn’t it weigh the fact that trying unaligned strategies first is asymetrically negative in expectation compared to trying aligned strategies first? If you try being an aligned AI and later discover evidence that you are actually clippy, the rewards from maximizing paper clips are still on the table. (Of course, such an AI would still at minimum make absolutely sure it could never be turned off).