Lucas L

• Lucas L 23 Feb 2023 14:58 UTC

  1 point

  0

  on: GPT-4 Predictions

  Futuur predicts a 32% chance that GPT-4 will be released by May 2023 and a ~74% chance that it will be released by the end of 2023 (probability generated in real money).

• Lucas L 16 Feb 2023 15:19 UTC

  1 point

  in reply to: Daniel Kokotajlo’s comment on: Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

  You can use Futuur for real-money markets! Btw they are planning to have user-generated markets as well

• Lucas L 14 Feb 2023 15:00 UTC

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: MrThink’s comment on: Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Science

  Futuur is a prediction market with play money and real money options (each option has a different probability of some event occurring). An interesting market launched was which option would be more accurate, and real money won even with fewer bettors.

  I believe markets with play money are more likely to be biased as no money is involved, with less skin in the predictions.

• Lucas L 9 Jan 2023 20:41 UTC

  1 point

  0

  on: La­tent vari­able pre­dic­tion mar­kets mockup + de­signer request

  Cool, prediction markets will be sources of information just like GPT Chat is today! If you want to find real-money markets, you can try Futuur as Manifold only operates with play-money.

  Let me know if you have any feedback/​suggestions for Futuur as well, we would love to know what you think of the platform!