My argument here is very related to what jacquesthibs mentions.
Right now it seems like the biggest bottleneck for the AI Alignment field is senior researchers. There are tons of junior people joining the field and I think there are many opportunities for junior people to up-skill and do some programs for a few months (e.g. SERI MATS, MLAB, REMIX, AGI Safety Fundamentals, etc.). The big problem (in my view) is that there are not enough organizations to actually absorb all the rather “junior” people at the moment. My sense is that 80K and most programs encourage people to up-skill and then try to get a job at a big organization (like Deepmind, Anthropic, OpenAI, Conjecture, etc.). Realistically speaking though, these organizations can only absorb a few people in a year. In my experience, it’s extremely competitive to get a job at these organizations even if you’re a more experienced researcher (e.g. having done a couple of years of research, a Ph.D., or similar). This means that while there are many opportunities for junior people to get a stand in the field, there are actually very few paths that actually allow you to have a full-time career in this field (this is also for more experienced researchers who don’t get a big lab). So the bottleneck in my view is not having enough organizations, which is a result of not having enough senior researchers. Funding an org is super hard, you want to have experienced people, with good research taste, and some kind of research agenda. So if you don’t have many senior people in a field, it will be hard to find people that fund those additional orgs.
Now, one career path that many people are currently taking, is being an “independent researcher” and being funded through a grant. I would claim that this is currently the default path for any researcher who do not get a full-time position and want to stay in the field. I believe that there are people out there who will do great as independent researchers and actually contribute to solving problems (e.g. Marius Hobbhahn and John Wenthworth talk bout being an independent researchers). I am however quite skeptical about most people doing independent research without any kind of supervision. I am not saying one can’t make progress, but it’s super hard to do this without a lot of research experience, a structured environment, good supervision, etc. I am especially skeptical about independent researchers becoming great senior researchers if they can’t work with people who are already very experienced and learn from them. Intuitively I think that no other field has junior people independently working without clear structures and supervision, so I feel like my skepticism is warranted.
In terms of career capital, being an independent researcher is also very risky. If your research fails, i.e. you don’t get a lot of good output (papers, code libraries, or whatever), “having done independent research for a couple of years” will not sound great in your CV. As a comparison, if you somehow do a very mediocre Ph.D. with no great insights, but you do manage to get the title, at least you have that in your CV (having a Ph.D. can be pretty useful in many cases).
So overall I believe that decision makers and AI field builders should put their main attention on how we can “groom” senior researchers in the field and get more full-time positions through organizations. I don’t claim to have the answers on how to solve this. But it does seem the greatest bottleneck for field building in my opinion. It seems like the field was able to get a lot more people excited about AI safety and to change their careers (we still have by far not enough people though). However right I think that many people are kind of stuck as junior researchers, having done some programs, and not being able to get full-time positions. Note that I am aware that some programs such as SERI MATS do in some sense have the ambition of grooming senior researchers. However, in practice, it still feels like there is a big gap right now.
My background (in case this is useful): I’ve been doing ML research throughout my Bachelor’s and Masters. I’ve worked at FAR AI on “AI alignment” for the last 1.5 years, so I was lucky to get a full-time position. I don’t consider myself a “senior” researcher as defined in this comment, but I definitely have a lot of research experience in the field. From my own experience, it’s pretty hard to find a new full-time position in the field, especially if you are also geographically constrained.
Thanks for your comments Akash. I think I have two main points I want to address.
I agree that it’s very good that the field of AI Alignment is very competitive! I did not want to imply that this is a bad thing. I was mainly trying to point out that from my point of view, it seems like overall there are more qualified and experienced people than there are jobs at large organizations. And in order to fill that gap we would need more senior researchers, who then can follow their research agendas and hire people (and fund orgs), which is however hard to achieve. One disclaimer I want to note is that I do not work at a large org, and I do not precisely know what kinds of hiring criteria they have, i.e. it is possible that in their view we still lack talented enough people. However, from the outside, it definitely does look like there are many experienced researchers.
It is possible that my previous statement may have been misinterpreted. I wish to clarify that my concerns do not pertain to funding being a challenge. I did not want to make an assertion about funding in general, and if my words gave that impression, I apologize. I do not know enough about the funding landscape to know whether there is a lot or not enough funding (especially in recent months).
I agree with you that, for all I know, it’s feasible to get funding for independent researchers (and definitely easier than doing a Ph.D. or getting a full-time position). I also agree that independent research seems to be more heavily funded than in other fields.
My point was mainly the following:
Many people have joined the field (which is great!), or at least it looks like it from the outside. 80000 hours etc. still recommend switching to AI Alignment, so it seems likely that more people will join.
I believe that there are many opportunities for people to up-skill to a certain level if they want to join the field (Seri Mats, AI safety camp, etc.).
However full-time positions (for example at big labs) are very limited. This also makes sense, since they can only hire so many people a year.
It seems like the most obvious option for people who want to stay in the field is to do independent research (and apply for grants). I think it’s great that people do independent research and that one has the opportunity to get grants.
However, doing independent research is not always ideal for many reasons (as outlined in my main comment). Note I’m not saying it doesn’t make sense at all, it definitely has its merits.
In order to have more full-time positions we need more senior people, who can then fund their organizations, or independently hire people, etc. Independent research does not seem like a promising avenue to me, to groom senior researchers. It’s essential that you can learn from people that are better than you and be in a good environment (yes there are exceptions like Einstein, but I think most researchers I know would agree with that statement).
So to me, the biggest bottleneck of all is how can we get many great researchers and groom them to be senior researchers who can lead their own orgs. I think that so far we have really optimized for getting people into the field (which is great). But we haven’t really found a solution to grooming senior researchers (again, some programs try to do that and I’m aware that this takes time). Overall I believe that this is a hard problem and probably others have already thought about it. I’m just trying to make that point in case nobody has written it up yet. Especially if people are trying to do AI safety field building it seems to me that, coming up with ways to groom senior researchers is a top priority.
Ultimately I’m not even sure whether there is a clear solution to this problem. The field is still very new and it’s amazing what has already happened. It’s probable that it just takes time for the field to mature and people getting more experience. I think I mostly wanted to point this out, even if it is maybe obvious.