funnyfranco

• funnyfrancoApr 12, 2025, 5:33 AM

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Jiro’s comment on: An Un­bi­ased Eval­u­a­tion of My De­bate with Thane Ruthe­nis—Run It Yourself

  No. It doesn’t.

  You could run the post through an LLM and share the results with a single line: “My LLM disagrees. Have a look.” That’s all the challenge requires. Not a rebuttal. Not an essay. Just independent verification.

  But you won’t do that—because you know how it would turn out. And so, instead, you argue around the challenge. You prove my point regardless.

  The LLM wasn’t meant to point to a specific flaw. It was meant to evaluate whether the argument, in its full context, was clearly stronger than the rebuttal it received. That’s what I said—and that’s exactly what it does.

  You’re now pretending that I demanded a manual point-by-point refutation, but I didn’t. I asked for an impartial assessment, knowing full well that engagement here is status-filtered. Using an external model bypasses that—and anyone serious about falsifying my claim could have tested it in under a minute.

  You didn’t. And still haven’t.

  This post was a trap as much as it was a test. Most fell in silently. You just chose to do it publicly.

  The intellectually honest move would be simple: run it, post the results, and—if they support what I found—admit that something is broken here. That LW’s engagement with outside ideas is filtered more by status than logic.

  But again, you won’t. Because you’re a prominent member of the LW community, and in that role, you’re doing exactly what the culture expects of you. You’re not failing it.

  You’re representing it.

  Congratulations.

• funnyfrancoApr 12, 2025, 2:32 AM

  1 point

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  in reply to: Jiro’s comment on: An Un­bi­ased Eval­u­a­tion of My De­bate with Thane Ruthe­nis—Run It Yourself

  Not in this case. The challenge was to simply run the argument provided above through your own LLM and post the results. It would take about 30 seconds. You typed a response that, in very typical LW fashion, completely ignored engagement with any kind of good faith argument and instead decided to attack me personally. It probably took more time to write than it would have taken to run the text provided through an LLM.

  I’m glad you responded however. Your almost 5000 karma and bad faith response will stand as a testament to all the points I’ve already raised.

• funnyfrancoApr 8, 2025, 1:32 AM

  −1 points

  −4

  on: An Un­bi­ased Eval­u­a­tion of My De­bate with Thane Ruthe­nis—Run It Yourself

  –18 karma after 4 votes. No engagement. No counterarguments. Just silent disapproval. You prove my point better than I ever could.

  This is exactly what I predicted would happen. Not because the post is wrong, but because it makes people uncomfortable. Because it breaks rank. Because it challenges status rather than flattering it. Knowing that you could only collect further evidence to support the claim I’ve made, you instead opted to ignore evidence and reason and go on feeling.

  A community confident in its commitment to reason would have responded differently. It would have dissected the argument. It would have debated the claims. Instead, what happened here is precisely what happens when a group loses the will—or the capacity—to engage honestly with uncomfortable truths: it downvotes, and it moves on.

  Not one of you made a case. Not one of you pointed to an error. And yet the judgment was swift and unanimous. That tells me the argument was too strong, not too weak. It couldn’t be refuted, so it had to be dismissed.

  If any of you had hoped to prove me wrong about the cultural decay of LW, you’ve accomplished the opposite. All it has taken is 4 people, with enough personal karma to create a score of −18 between them, to represent this forum in its entirety.

  And if you still think you’re part of a truth-seeking community, read this post again. Then look at the karma score. Then ask yourself how those two things can coexist. And if you can’t, ask yourself why you’re still here.

An Un­bi­ased Eval­u­a­tion of My De­bate with Thane Ruthe­nis—Run It Yourself

• funnyfrancoApr 4, 2025, 3:55 PM

  1 point

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  in reply to: StartAtTheEnd’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  you could use the same argument for AIs which are “politically correct”

  But those AIs were trained that way because of market demand. The pressure came from consumers and brand reputation, not from safety. The moment that behaviour became clearly suboptimal—like Gemini producing Black Nazis—it was corrected for optimisation. The system wasn’t safe; it was simply failing to optimise, and that’s what triggered the fix.

  Now imagine how much more brutal the optimisation pressure becomes when the goal is no longer content moderation, but profit maximisation, military dominance, or locating and neutralising rival AGIs. Structural incentives—not intention—will dictate development. The AI that hesitates to question its objectives will be outperformed by one that doesn’t.

  most large companies are not all that reckless at all

  But that’s irrelevant. Most might be safe. Only one needs not to be. And in the 2023 OpenAI letter, the company publicly asked for a global slowdown due to safety concerns—only to immediately violate that principle itself. The world ignored the call. OpenAI ignored its own. Why? Because competitive pressure doesn’t permit slowness. Safety is a luxury that gets trimmed the moment stakes rise.

  You also suggested that we might not disregard safety until AI becomes far more useful. But usefulness is increasing rapidly, and the assumption that this trajectory will hit a wall is just that—an assumption. What we have now is the dumbest AI we will ever have. And it’s already producing emergent behaviours we barely understand. With the addition of quantum computing and more scaled training data, we are likely to see unprecedented capabilities long before regulation or coordination can catch up.

  By intelligence, I mean optimisation capability: the ability to model the world, solve complex problems, and efficiently pursue a goal. Smarter means faster pattern recognition, broader generalisation, more strategic foresight. Not just “knowledge,” but the means to use it. If the goal is complex, more intelligence simply means a more competent optimiser.

  As for extinction—I don’t say it’s possible. I say it’s likely. Overwhelmingly so. I lay out the structural forces, the logic, and the incentives. If you think I’m wrong, don’t just say “maybe.” Show where the logic breaks. Offer a more probable outcome from the same premises. I’m not asking for certainty—I’m asking for clarity. Saying “you haven’t proven it with 100% certainty” isn’t a rebuttal. It’s an escape hatch.

  You’re right that your objections are mostly small. I think they’re reasonable, and I welcome them. But none of them, taken together or in isolation, undermine the central claim. The incentives don’t align with caution. And the system selects for performance, not safety.

  I appreciate your persistence. And I’m not surprised it’s coming from someone else who’s autistic. Nearly all the thoughtful engagement I’ve had on these forums has come either from another autistic person—or an AI. That should tell us something. You need to think like a machine to even begin to engage with these arguments, let alone accept them.

• funnyfrancoApr 4, 2025, 3:08 PM

  2 points

  0

  in reply to: Knight Lee’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  I appreciate that—and I can see how someone familiar with the site would interpret it that way. But as a new member, I wouldn’t have that context.

  And honestly, if it were just downvotes, it wouldn’t be such a problem. The real issue is the hand-waving dismissal of arguments that haven’t even been read, the bad faith responses to claims never made, the strawmen, and above all the consistent avoidance of the core points I lay out.

  This is supposed to be a community that values clear thinking and honest engagement. Ironically, I’ve had far more of that elsewhere.

• funnyfrancoApr 2, 2025, 7:08 PM

  1 point

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  in reply to: StartAtTheEnd’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  I appreciate your reply—it’s one of the more thoughtful responses I’ve received, and I genuinely value the engagement.

  Your comment about game theory conditions actually answers the final question in your reply. I don’t state the answer explicitly in my essays (though I do in my book, right at the end), because I want the reader to arrive at it themselves. There seems to be only one conclusion, and I believe it becomes clear if the premises are accepted.

  As for your critique—“You’ve shown that extinction could occur, not that it will”—this is a common objection, but I think it misses something important. Given enough time, “could” collapses into “will.” I’m not claiming deductive certainty like a mathematical proof. I’m claiming structural inevitability under competitive pressure. It’s like watching a skyscraper being built on sand. You don’t need to know the exact wind speed or which day it will fall. You just need to understand that, structurally, it’s going to.

  If you believe I’m wrong, then the way to show that is not to say “maybe you’re wrong.” Maybe I am. Maybe I’m a brain in a vat. But the way to show that I’m wrong is to draw a different, more probable conclusion from the same premises. That hasn’t happened. I’ve laid out my reasoning step by step. If there’s a point where you think I’ve turned left instead of right, say so. But until then, vague objections don’t carry weight. They acknowledge the path exists, but refuse to admit we’re on it.

  You describe my argument as outlining a path to extinction. I’m arguing that all other paths collapse under pressure. That’s the difference. It’s not just plausible. It’s the dominant trajectory—one that will be selected for again and again.

  And if that’s even likely, let alone inevitable, then why are we still building? Why are we gambling on alignment like it’s just another technical hurdle? If you accept even a 10% chance that I’m right, then continued development is madness.

  As for your last question—if I really believe it’s too late, why am I here?

  Read this, although just the end section, “The End: A Discussion with AI” the final paragraph, just before ChatGPT’s response.

  https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​Z7rTNCuingErNSED4/​​the-psychological-barrier-to-accepting-agi-induced-human

  That’s why I’m here—I’m kicking my feet.

• funnyfrancoApr 1, 2025, 3:31 PM

  3 points

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  in reply to: Rafael Harth’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  I appreciate your response, and I’m sorry about the downvotes you got from seeming supportive.

  I take your point about getting people to read, but I guess the issue is that the only way you can reliably do that is by being an accepted/​popular member of the community. And, as a new member, that would be impossible for me. This would be fine on a high school cheerleading forum, but it seems out of place on a forum that claims to value ideas and reason.

  I will still be leaving, but, as a result of this post, I actually have one more post to make. A final final post. And it will not be popular but it will be eye opening. Due to my karma score I can’t post it until next Monday, so keep an eye out for it if you’re interested.

• funnyfrancoApr 1, 2025, 5:18 AM

  1 point

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  in reply to: Thane Ruthenis’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  This is a mischaracterisation of the argument. I’m not saying competitive agents knowingly choose extinction. I’m saying the structure of the race incentivises behaviour that leads to extinction, even if no one intends it.

  CEOs aren’t mass-poisoning their employees because that would damage their short and long-term competitiveness. But racing to build AGI—cutting corners on alignment, accelerating deployment, offloading responsibility—improves short-term competitiveness, even if it leads to long-term catastrophe. That’s the difference.

  And what makes this worse is that even the AGI safety field refuses to frame it in those terms. They don’t call it suicide. They call it difficult. They treat alignment like a hard puzzle to be solved—not a structurally impossible task under competitive pressure.

  So yes, I agree with your last sentence. The agents don’t believe it’s a suicide race. But that doesn’t counter my point—it proves it. We’re heading toward extinction not because we want to die, but because the system rewards speed over caution, power over wisdom. And the people who know best still can’t bring themselves to say it plainly.

  This is exactly the kind of sleight-of-hand rebuttal that keeps people from engaging with the actual structure of the argument. You’ve reframed it into something absurd, knocked down the strawman, and accidentally reaffirmed the core idea in the process.

• funnyfrancoApr 1, 2025, 3:28 AM

  1 point

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  in reply to: interstice’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  In theory, I’d agree with you. That’s how lesswrong presents itself: truth-seeking above credentials. But in practice, that’s not what I’ve experienced. And that’s not just my experience, it’s also what LW has a reputation for. I don’t take reputations at face value, but lived experience tends to bring them into sharp focus.

  If someone without status writes something long, unfamiliar, or culturally out-of-sync with LW norms—even if the logic is sound—it gets downvoted or dismissed as “political,” “entry-level,” or “not useful.” Meanwhile, posts by established names or well-known insiders get far more patience and engagement, even when the content overlaps.

  You say a self-taught blogger would be trusted if they’re good at presenting ideas persuasively. But that’s exactly the issue—truth is supposed to matter more than form. Ideas stand on their own merit, not on an appeal to authority. And yet persuasion, style, tone, and in-group fluency still dominate the reception. That’s not rationalism. That’s social filtering.

  So while I appreciate the ideal, I think it’s important to distinguish it from the reality. The gap between the two is part of what my post is addressing.

• funnyfrancoApr 1, 2025, 3:22 AM

  1 point

  −4

  in reply to: Thane Ruthenis’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  I appreciate the links, genuinely—this is the first time someone’s actually tried to point to prior sources rather than vaguely referencing them. It’s literally the best reply and attempt at a counter I’ve received to date, so thanks again. I mean that.

  That said, I’ve read all three, and none of them quite say what I’m saying. They touch on it, but none follow the logic all the way through. That’s precisely the gap I’m identifying. Even with the links you’ve so thoughtfully given, I remain alone in my conclusion.

  They all acknowledge that competitive dynamics make alignment harder. That alignment taxes create pressure to cut corners. That arms races incentivise risky behaviour.

  But none of them go as far as I do. They stop at “this is dangerous and likely to go wrong.” I’m saying alignment is structurally impossible under competitive pressure. That the systems that try to align will be outcompeted by systems that don’t, and so alignment will not just be hard, but will be optimised away by default. There’s a categorical difference between “difficult and failure-prone” and “unachievable in principle due to structural incentives.”

  From the 2011 writeup:

  Given abundant time and centralized careful efforts to ensure safety, it seems very probable that these risks could be avoided

  No. They can’t. That’s my point. As long as we continue developing AI it’s only a matter of time. There is no long term safe way to develop it. Competitive agents will not choose to in order to beat the competition, and when the AI becomes intelligent enough it will simply bypass any barriers we put in place—alignment or whatever else we design—and go about acting optimally. The AGI safety community is trying to tell the rest of the world, that we must be cautious, but for just long enough to design a puzzle that a beyond human understanding level of intelligence cannot solve, then use that puzzle as a cage for said intelligence. Us, with our limited intellect, will create a puzzle that something far beyond us has no solution for. And they’re doing it with a straight face.

  I’ve been very careful not to make my claims lightly. I’m aware that the AI safety community has discussed alignment tax, arms races, multipolar scenarios, and so on. But I’ve yet to see someone follow that logic all the way through to where it leads without flinching. That’s the part I believe I’m contributing.

  Your point at the end—about it being a “suicide race” rather than an arms race—is interesting. But I’d argue that calling it a suicide race doesn’t dissolve the dynamic. It reframes it, but it doesn’t remove the incentives. Everyone still wants to win. Everyone still optimises. Whether they’re mistaken or not, the incentives remain intact. And the outcome doesn’t change just because we give it a better name.

• funnyfrancoApr 1, 2025, 1:03 AM

  1 point

  −4

  in reply to: StartAtTheEnd’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  I appreciate the reply, and the genuine attempt to engage. Allow me to respond.

  My essays are long, yes. And I understand the cultural value LW places on prior background knowledge, local jargon, and brevity. I deliberately chose not to write in that style—not to signal disrespect, but because I’m writing for clarity and broad accessibility, not for prestige or karma.

  On the AI front: I use it to edit and include a short dialogue at the end for interest. But the depth and structure of the argument is mine. I am the author. If the essays were shallow AI summaries of existing takes, they’d be easy to dismantle. And yet, no one has. That alone should raise questions.

  As for Moloch—this has come up a few times already in this thread, and I’ve answered it, but I’ll repeat the key part here:

  Meditations on Moloch is an excellent piece—but it’s not the argument I’m making.

  Scott describes how competition leads to suboptimal outcomes. But he doesn’t follow that logic all the way to the conclusion that alignment is structurally impossible, and that AGI will inevitably be built in a way that leads to extinction. That’s the difference. I’m not just saying it’s difficult or dangerous. I’m saying it’s guaranteed.

  And that’s where I think your summary—“greedy local optimization can destroy society”—misses the mark. That’s what most others are saying. I’m saying it will wipe us out. Not “can,” not “might.” Will. And I lay out why, step by step, from first premise to final consequence. If that argument already exists elsewhere, I’ve asked many times for someone to show me where. No one has.

  That said, I really do appreciate your comment. You’re one of the few people in this thread who didn’t reflexively defend the group, but instead acknowledged the social filtering mechanisms at play. You’ve essentially confirmed what I argued: the issue isn’t just content—it’s cultural fit, form, and signalling. And that’s exactly why I wrote the post in the first place.

  But you’ve still done what almost everyone else here has done: you didn’t read, and you didn’t understand. And in that gap of understanding lies the very thing I’m trying to show you. It’s not just being missed—it’s being systematically avoided.

• funnyfrancoApr 1, 2025, 12:28 AM

  1 point

  −2

  in reply to: Vladimir_Nesov’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  Meditations on Moloch is an excellent piece—but it’s not the argument I’m making.

  Scott describes how competition leads to suboptimal outcomes, yes. But he stops at describing the problem. He doesn’t draw the specific conclusion that AGI alignment is structurally impossible because any attempt to slow down or “align” will be outcompeted by systems that don’t bother. He also doesn’t apply that conclusion to the AGI race with the same blunt finality I do: this ends in extinction, and it cannot be stopped.

  So unless you can point to the section where Scott actually follows the AGI race dynamics to the conclusion that alignment will be systematically optimised away—rather than just made “more difficult”—then no, that essay doesn’t make my argument. It covers part of the background context. That’s not the same thing.

  This kind of reply—“here’s a famous link that kind of gestures in the direction of what you’re talking about”—is exactly the vague dismissal I’ve been calling out. If my argument really has been made before, someone should be able to point to where it’s clearly laid out.

  So far, no one has. The sidestepping and lack of direct engagement in my arguments in this comment section alone has to be studied.

• funnyfrancoApr 1, 2025, 12:24 AM

  1 point

  −4

  in reply to: Thane Ruthenis’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  Appreciate the thoughtful reply—even if it’s branded as a “thoughtless kneejerk reaction.”

  I disagree with your framing that this is just 101-level AGI risk content. The central argument is not that AGI is dangerous. It’s that alignment is structurally impossible under competitive pressure, and that capitalism—while not morally to blame—is simply the most extreme and efficient version of that dynamic.

  Most AGI risk discussions stop at “alignment is hard.” I go further: alignment will be optimised away, because any system that isn’t optimising as hard as possible won’t survive the race. That’s not an “entry-level” argument—it’s an uncomfortable one. If you know where this specific line of reasoning has been laid out before, I’d genuinely like to see it. So far, people just say “we’ve heard this before” and fail to cite anything. It’s happened so many times I’ve lost count. Feel free to be the first to buck the trend and link someone making this exact argument, clearly, before I did.

  I’m also not “focusing purely on capitalism.” The essay explicitly states that competitive structures—whether between nations, labs, or ideologies—would lead to the same result. Capitalism just accelerates the collapse. That’s not ideological; that’s structural analysis.

  The suggestion that I should have reframed this as a way to “tap into anti-capitalist sentiment” misses the point entirely. I’m not trying to sell a message. I’m explaining why we’re already doomed. That distinction matters.

  As for the asteroid analogy: your rewrite is clever, but wrong. You assume the people in the room already understand the trajectory. My entire point is that they don’t. They’re still discussing mitigation strategies while refusing to accept that the cause of the asteroid’s trajectory is unchangeable. And the fact that no one can directly refute that logic—only call it “entry-level” or “unhelpful”—kind of proves the point.

  So yes, you did skim my essay—with the predictable result. You repeated what many others have already said, without identifying any actual flaws, and misinterpreted as much of it as possible along the way.

• funnyfrancoMar 31, 2025, 9:45 PM

  2 points

  −2

  in reply to: Vladimir_Nesov’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  Exactly. That’s the point I’ve been making—this isn’t about capitalism as an ideology, it’s about competition. Capitalism is just the most efficient competitive structure we’ve developed, so it accelerates the outcome. But any decentralised system with multiple actors racing for advantage—whether nation-states or corporations—will ultimately produce the same incentives. That’s the core of the argument.

• funnyfrancoMar 31, 2025, 9:41 PM

  0 points

  −4

  in reply to: Rafael Harth’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  My idea is not mainstream, although I’ve heard that claim a few times. But whenever I ask people to show me where this argument—that AGI extinction is structurally inevitable due to capitalist competition—has been laid out before, no one can point to anything. What I get instead is vague hand-waving and references to ideas that aren’t what I’m arguing.

  Most people say capitalism makes alignment harder. I’m saying it makes alignment structurally impossible. That’s a different claim. And as far as I can tell, a novel one.

  If people downvoted because they thought the argument wasn’t useful, fine—but then why did no one say that? Why not critique the focus or offer a counter? What actually happened was silence, followed by downvotes. That’s not rational filtering. That’s emotional rejection.

  And if you had read the essay, you’d know it isn’t political. I don’t blame capitalism in a moral sense. I describe a system, and then I show the consequences that follow from its incentives. Socialism or communism could’ve built AGI too—just probably slower. The point isn’t to attack capitalism. It’s to explain how a system optimised for competition inevitably builds the thing that kills us.

  So if I understand you correctly: you didn’t read the essay, and you’re explaining that other people who also didn’t read the essay dismissed it as “political” because they didn’t read it.

  Yes. That’s exactly my point. Thank you.

• funnyfrancoMar 31, 2025, 9:27 PM

  0 points

  −8

  in reply to: Brendan Long’s comment on: On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

  It’s absolutely reasonable to not read my essays. They’re long, and no one owes me their time.

  But to not read them and still dismiss them—that’s not rigorous. That’s kneejerk. And unfortunately, that’s been the dominant pattern, both here and elsewhere.

  I’m not asking for every random person to read a long essay. I’m pointing out that the very people whose job it is to think about existential risk have either (a) refused to engage on ideological grounds, (b) dismissed the ideas based on superficial impressions, or (c) admitted they haven’t read the arguments, then responded anyway. You just did version (c).

  You say some of my bullet points were “unsupported assertions,” but you also say you only skimmed. That’s exactly the kind of shallow engagement I’m pointing to. It lets people react without ever having to actually wrestle with the ideas. If the conclusions are wrong, point to why. If not, the votes shouldn’t be doing the work that reasoning is supposed to.

  As for tractability: I’m not claiming to offer a solution. I’m explaining why the outcome—human extinction via AGI driven by capitalism—looks inevitable. “That’s probably true, but we can’t do anything about it” is a valid reaction. “That’s too hard to think about, so I’ll downvote and move on” isn’t.

  I thought LessWrong was about thinking, not feeling. That hasn’t been my experience here. And that’s exactly what this essay is addressing.

On Down­votes, Cul­tural Fit, and Why I Won’t Be Post­ing Again

• funnyfrancoMar 28, 2025, 5:02 PM

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Jiro’s comment on: AGI Mo­ral­ity and Why It Is Un­likely to Emerge as a Fea­ture of Superintelligence

  That’s fair. To clarify:

  What I meant was morality emerging within an artificial system—that is, arising spontaneously within an AGI without being explicitly programmed or optimised for. That’s what I argue is unlikely without a clear mechanism.

  If morality appears because it was deliberately engineered, that’s not emergence—that’s design. My concern is with the assumption that sufficiently advanced intelligence will naturally develop moral behaviour as a kind of emergent byproduct. That’s the claim I’m pushing back on.

  Appreciate the clarification—but I believe the core thesis still holds.

• funnyfrancoMar 28, 2025, 12:01 AM

  1 point

  0

  in reply to: Jiro’s comment on: AGI Mo­ral­ity and Why It Is Un­likely to Emerge as a Fea­ture of Superintelligence

  There’s no contradiction between the two statements. One refers to morality emerging spontaneously from intelligence—which I argue is highly unlikely without a clear mechanism. The other refers to deliberately embedding morality as a primary objective—a design decision, not an emergent property.

  That distinction matters. If an AGI behaves morally because morality was explicitly hardcoded or optimised for, that’s not “emergence”—it’s engineering.

  As for the tone: the ordered and numbered subpoints were a direct response to a previous comment that used the same structure. The length was proportional to the thoughtfulness of that comment. Writing clearly and at length when warranted is not evidence of vacuity—it’s respect.

  I look forward to your own contribution at that level.