You meditated for 700 hours and don’t feel like you gained any ‘insight’! That is a lot of hours. Why did you keep going?
sapphire
Karma: 2,725
We are clearly looking at things differently. That’s fine. But if two people see things differently I don’t think it’s wise to map what they are saying into your ontology.
Your understanding of global assets seems quite wrong. These are 2024 numbers so slightly out of date. Fir example public companies total around 111 trillion now. The sp500 is around 52 trillion fwiw.
’Global real estate, encompassing residential, commercial and agricultural lands, cemented its status as the world’s largest repository of wealth in 2022 when the market reached a value of $379.7 trillion.
According to a report from international real estate adviser Savills, this value is more than global equities ($98.9 trillion) and debt securities ($129.8 trillion) combined and nearly four times the global gross domestic product ($100.6 trillion).”
Total money is around the same as debt. Private companies add up to a lot but I’m not sure anyone has a good estimate.
I’m not going to get into all the implications. But your premises are not true.
Done.
Tail SP 500 Call Options
Nothing is obviously wrong with it. I’m not sure what probability to assign it. Its sort of “out of sample”. But it seems very plausible to me we are in a simulation. It is really hard to justify probabilities or even settle on them. But when I look inside myself the numbers that come to mind are 25-30%.
This is also obvious but Quantum Wave Function Collapse SURE DOES look like this universe is only being simulated at a certain fidelity.
Nothing is obviously wrong with it. I’m not sure what probability to assign it. Its sort of “out of sample”. But it seems very plausible to me we are in a simulation. It is really hard to justify probabilities or even settle on them. But when I look inside myself the numbers that come to mind are 25-30%.
7% of income tax returns in the USA include rental income. Most of that 7% can’t live off just the rents. But I would say more than 1% of the USA can easily live off of land rents.
I have spent weeks where pretty much all I did was:
-- have sex with my partner, hours per day
—watch anime with my partner
—eat food and ambiently hang with my partner
No work. Not much seeing other people. Of course given the amount of sex mundane situations were quite sexually charged. I’m not actually sure if it gets old on any human timeline. You also improve at having fun together. However this was not very good for our practical. But post singularity I probably wont need to worry about practical goals.
In general I think you underestimate the sustainable fun available to at least some humans under minimal conditions. I also found my two months meditating in a tent quite fun. Many people report this never gets old on human timelines either. Until your heath is so terrible you cannot even meditate well it remains fun, or improves!
I do not think you need supermeth to enjoy hedonism. Current human bodies work fine as long as they are in good shape and you have the right disposition. The issue is that if you delve deep into hedonism you will lose out on other things you could have obtained.
Lots of people already form romantic and sexual attachments to AI, despite the fact that most large models try to limit this behavior. The technology is already pretty good. Nevermind if your AI GF/BF could have a body and actually fuck you. I already “enjoy” the current tech.
I will say I was literally going to post “Why would I play status games when I can fuck my AI GF” before I read the content of the post, as opposed to just the title. I think this is what most people want to do. Not that this is going to sound better than “status games” to a lot of rationalists.
It feels to me like the hairs of the nobility are doing amazingly well. That is more than enough money to support a lifestyle of leisure. Such a lifestyle is not available to the vast majority of people. So it seems like they mostly did secure a superior existence for their heirs.
The heirs of European nobility are still very rich on average. So I feel like the main example goes the other way.
I have done a lot of thinking. At this point timelines are so short I would recommend:
Individual with no special connections:
-- Avoid tying up capital in illiquid plans. One exception is housing since ‘land on Holy Terra’ still seems quite valuable in many scenarios.
-- Make whatever spiritual preparations you can, whatever spirituality means to you. If you are inclined to Buddhism meditate. Practice loving kindness. Go to church if you are Christian. Talk to your loved ones. Even if you are atheist you need to prepare your metaphorical spirit for what may come. Physical health may also be valuable here.-- Buy Nvidia call options. Money is plausibly useful, its a form of optionality and there isn’t much else. Buy literally max strike, max far out. Hold for 100x or until conditions seriously change. Buy as much as you can afford to lose. I cannot think of anything better.
If you have special connections and skill:
-- Try to get the labs nationalized as rapidly as possible. Do not ‘just do things’ you need to avoid messing up other good actor’s plans. But I don’t endorse generalized inaction. there is no simple way to operationalize ‘actually exercise good judgement’. There probably isn’t time for much else. Nationalization at least means there is a mandate to align AI broadly. and maybe it would slow down progress somewhat.
-- I cannot vouch for groups like Pause AI. But I also do not anti-vouch. Maybe they or some similar group is doing things wisely. But before you follow anyone please use your absolute best judgement to determine if they have a good plan or not.
-- Please don’t do anything insane. I am a rationalist and so I too am inclined positively towards thinking through totally crazy ideas. But nothing terrorism adjacent is likely to go well. Consider what happened after 911. That crazy plot actually worked in the sense the Towers went down. But the hijackers claimed they wanted to free the Middle East from USAand Israeli domination. Obviously, even ignoring the direct costs of the terrorist attack, the plan backfired. They brought chaos and death to the countries they claimed to be fighting for. Please do not follow in their foolish footsteps. Before someone thinks its pointless to write this I will note the rationalist and EA communities have committed multiple ideological murders and a many billion dollar fraud. Be careful which ideas you take seriously.
I was still hoping for a sort of normal life. At least for a decade or maybe more. But that just doesn’t seem possible anymore. This is a rough night.
I recovered from surgery alone.
I had extensive facial feminization surgery. My jaw was drilled down. Same with brow ridge. Nose broken, reshaped packed. No solid go d for months.
Recovery was challenging alone but I was certain I could manage it myself. I spared myself begging for help. The horror of noticing I was pissing off my friend by needing help.
No regrets. I’m quite recovered now. That was very interesting month alone.
The truth should be rewarded. Even if it’s obvious. Everyday this post is more blatantly correct.
I don’t think he is directly responsible. But recent events are imo further evidence his methods are bad. If I said some dangerous teacher was Buddhist I would not be implicating the Buddha directly. Though it would be some evidence for the Buddha failing as a teacher.
Is the hoody gonna be good? Hoodies are often really shitty quality and texture. If you make a good one I will pay the 1K.
The Local Vasserite has directly stated “i purposefully induce mania in people, as taught by Michael Vassar”. Seems like the connection to michael Vassar is not very tenuous. At least that is my judgement. Others can disagree. Vassar does not have to personally administer the method or be currently supportive of his former student.
I have meditated quite a lot over the last fifteen years. My understanding is that Buddhist meditation practices are intended to reduce suffering and promote equanimity. The main proposed method of action is reducing attachment. They are effective in this regard. They are not useful for doing western philosophy.