Agreed on both counts, yeah. I still don’t think this is actually evidence against the possibility of the political nexus shifting away from social justice (in fact, I would count it as evidence we’re near peak intensity) and I still think there is a lot of value to trying to understand and capture interesting insights from the social justice movement, but I don’t think a real concerted effort do do this is possible until things relax a bit.
If someone can think of reasonable ways to verify whether the cultural toxicity of the SJ fight has ‘moved on’ I would be willing to make a public prediction that it will have done so in five years. Maybe some kind of random sample of twitter fights? Or a survey of leftist tumblr?
I expect this is where much of the challenge and nuance of this technique lies. A few questions come to mind when I try this. How do you handle terminal vs instrumental value? How do you handle various kinds of uncertainty? (expected value calculations can require your whole world-model if you don’t limit scope!)
Do you have any specific examples of how you perform this measurement on a real decision?