In the new version of Newcomb’s problem, you have to choose between a box containing the map and a box containing warm fuzzies.
Self-delusion or accurate beliefs? We all can empathize with this choice.
BT_Uytya
Karma: 643
Actually, prophesy was about the ship; the spaceship crashed into Aragena, their planet, and then curious inhabitants looked inside (and found nothing dangerous). After that came the messenger of their King and told them that they all are doomed.
And they indeed were.
Probably I’m incredible late with that, but:
a) thank you, embarrassing mistake fixed
b) I was fascinated with the “volatile atoms” bit. It feels like a line taken from a poem on reductionism. I’m not sure that I managed to convey it because I’m not so much versed in English fiction and poetry.
Also, I liked their safety measures, it’s a pity they hadn’t worked in the end.
It’s interesting to view this story from source-code-swap Prisoner’s Dilemma / Timeless Decision Theory perspective. This can be a perfect epigraph in an article dedicated to it.
The fear people have about the idea of adherence to protocol is rigidity. They imagine mindless automatons, heads down in a checklist, incapable of looking out their windshield and coping with the real world in front of them. But what you find, when a checklist is well made, is exactly the opposite. The checklist gets the dumb stuff out of the way, the routines your brain shouldn’t have to occupy itself with (Are the elevator controls set? Did the patient get her antibiotics on time? Did the managers sell all their shares? Is everyone on the same page here?), and lets it rise above to focus on the hard stuff (Where should we land?).
Here are the details of one of the sharpest checklists I’ve seen, a checklist for engine failure during flight in a single-engine Cessna airplane—the US Airways situation, only with a solo pilot. It is slimmed down to six key steps not to miss for restarting the engine, steps like making sure the fuel shutoff valve is in the OPEN position and putting the backup fuel pump switch ON. But step one on the list is the most fascinating. It is simply: FLY THE AIRPLANE. Because pilots sometimes become so desperate trying to restart their engine, so crushed by the cognitive overload of thinking through what could have gone wrong, they forget this most basic task. FLY THE AIRPLANE. This isn’t rigidity. This is making sure everyone has their best shot at survival.
-- Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto
Sages and scientists heard those words, and fear seized them. However, they disbelieved the horrible prophecy, deeming the possibility of perdition too improbable. They lifted the starship from its bed, shattered it into pieces with platinum hammers, plunged the pieces into hard radiation, and thus the ship was turned into myriads of volatile atoms, which are always silent, for atoms have no history; they are identical, whatever origin they have, whether it be bright suns, dead planets or intelligent creatures, — virtuous or vile — for raw matter is same in the Cosmos, and it is other things you should be afraid of.
Still, even atoms were gathered, frozen into one clod and sent into distant sky. Only then were Enterites able to say “We are saved. Nothing threatens us now”.
-- Stanislaw Lem, White Death
(as far as I know, this sweet short story never have been translated into English; I translated this passage myself from my Russian copy, so I will be glad if someone corrects my mistakes)
Law of Large Numbers states that sum of a large amount of i.i.d variables approaches its mathematical expectation. Roughly speaking, “big samples reliably reveal properties of population”.
It doesn’t state that “everything can happen in large samples”.
The first terrifying shock comes when you realize that the rest of the world is just so incredibly stupid.
The second terrifying shock comes when you realize that they’re not the only ones.
Yes, it was this video I had in mind.
On the other hand, you are probably have more raw intelligence now.
This seems reasonable indeed.
(if you are interested, the thing you are pointing at is conditional Kolmogorov complexity)
It’s not very useful measure.
So, there is Lesath Lestrange, an original character. Which is more likely: “Lesath thinks that Harry is his Lord” or “Lesath is a 3-level (or any specific number instead of “3″) player who wants to decieve Harry, and also he is H&C which is possible because he knows how to fool anti-obliviation wards”?
Your approach will just say “I don’t know what to make of it. We have already departured from the canon and I can’t work here” with a sad look on face.
EDIT: I re-read my comment, and it seems to be arrogant and condescending. I didn’t intend it to be so, and not sure how I should change it, so I figured I should just apologize beforehand. Your approach to assigning priors is reasonable one, it just lacking some vital parts.
Canon Tom Riddle didn’t either. There are only so much words you can get from letters “TOM MARVOLO RIDDLE”, after all.
(non-native speaker here)
I was under impression that “to counterfeit” means only “to create imperfect copies in order to fraud someone”, but it seems that it also means “to deceive”. Thank you!
Huh, I was sure you are able to choose your Animagus form, but it appears I was mistaken.
Apparently you become the animal that suits you best.
Still, there is a potential for a creative Legilemency and False-Memory Charm casted on oneself in order to create an appropriate self-image. Assuming Bellatrix was an Animagus before meeting Voldemort, was her Animagus form changed when she was shattered into pieces and re-combined into someone else?
Also, what if I Memory-Charm myself to believe that common characteristics of spiders are intelligence and courage? Will my Animagus form change depending on the beliefs of native population (e.g. if you are very cunning, you will be snake in Britain, fox in Russia and mongoose in Asia)?
ETA: Can’t stop thinking about it. Created a topic on Reddit since I feel like Reddit is more suitable for a this discussion: LW is serious and I prefer it to stay this way.
Aha! Thank you!
My mistake was that I kept thinking about “false” as in “false theory” instead of “false” as in “false money”.
Just remembered a serious objection, originally from Tarhish on reddit:
I had been thinking about this possibility for a while, but now it also requires Dumbledore to have lied about Lily and James hearing the prophecy in the Hall of Prophecy. Because if they did, then it means they were mentioned in the prophecy, and this theory does not, at first thought, seem to allow that.
(from here, it’s only 4 months old, you still can upvote that)
This argument can be somewhat handwaved away by “James is ascendant of Ignotus Peverell, and prophecy talks about several possible futures”, but still.
I think you should at least give a link to the relevant Youtube clip in A/N. I’m not sure readers unfamiliar with canon fully understand what is going on concerning Peverell brothers.
I don’t get it. Could you explain it please?
(just amused by the possibility)
Also, it is possible that Peano arithmetic isn’t consistent; if so, either the very concept of ‘primality’ doesn’t make any sense, or it can just mess up the primality tests which were used in creation of (b) and (c), and the connection between “1159 if prime” and “this program outputs True and halts” as well.
Of course, it screws up any application of Cox’s theorem here, even worse than in delusion case.