I was more making a point about the value of a credit score—mine is near perfect anyway. I have a mortgage and three permanent credit cards that I maintain, and no real blemishes.
Baisius
Also, as I understand, it’s actually better not to cancel the cards you sign up for (unless they have an annual fee), because “average age of credit line” is a factor in the FICO score. Snip them up, set up auto-pay and fraud alerts and forget about them, but don’t cancel them.
It does not seem like the expected value of the probability of something slipping through the cracks would pay for the marginal increase in the credit score.
Effective effective altruism: Get $400 off your next charity donation
It’s not clear that this maps to colloquial use of the terms “feminine” and “masculine” then. I think most would consider them opposite ends of the same spectrum.
I’m losing a lot of confidence in the digit ratio/masculinity femininity stuff. I’m not seeing a number of things I’d expect to see.
First, my numbers for correlations don’t match up with yours. With filters on for female gendered, and answering all of BemSexRoleF, BemSexRoleM, RightHand, and LeftHand, I get a correlation of only −0.34 for RightHand and BemSexRoleM, not −0.433 as you say. I get various other differences as well, all weaker correlations than you describe. Perhaps differences in filtering explain this? -.34 vs -.433 seems to be high for this to be true though.
Second, Bem masculinity and femininity actually seem to have a positive correlation, albeit tiny. So more masculine people are… more feminine? This makes no sense and makes me more likely to throw out the entire data set.
Thirdly, I don’t see any huge differences between Cisgender Men, Transgender Men, Cisgender Women, or Transgender Women on digit ratios. I would expect to see this as well. I get 95% confidence intervals (mean +/- 3*sigma/sqrt(n), formatted [Lower Right—Upper Right / Lower Left—Upper Left]) for the categories as follows:
F (Cis): [0.949 − 0.996 / 0.956 − 1.004]
M (Cis): [0.962 − 0.978 / 0.963 − 0.979]
M (Trans): [0.907 − 0.988 / 0.818 − 1.070]
F (Trans): [0.935 − 1.002 / 0.935 − 1.019]
There’s pretty significant overlap between all 4 categories. I made a dotplot that I can’t upload and it doesn’t look to me like there’s any difference in the distributions, but I don’t think we have enough of a sample size to have a meaningful distribution on anything except cis males and maybe cis females.
Lastly, I guess I just skipped over the favorite LessWrong post? Not sure what I would have answered, but it would have been either When None Dare Urge Restraint or Intellectual Hipsters and Metacontrarians. Surprised to see neither of those on the list.
Edit: As always, thanks for doing this!
About 10 percent of A.I. researchers believe the first machine with human-level intelligence will arrive in the next 10 years. Nearly all think it will be accomplished by century’s end.
My first thought upon reading this was “Holy crap! Really?!” as I began revising my own probability/risk estimates. Then I realized that people probably also said this in the 1950s. How much are other people updating on this?
Ruston is in northern Louisiana, about an hour from Shreveport and an hour and a half from Natchitoches.
I have done a number of things.
I have a problem staying awake when I drive. Unrelated, I wanted more intellectual stimulation in my life. So I started downloading podcasts to listen to while I drive instead of music, which, while not the intended benefit, engage my brain and keep me more awake. Intellectual stimulation is up too.
I started getting back into trying to read and post (albeit under the name of a new account not tied closely to my real name) on LW, tumblr, and a couple others.
I got a promotion (well, I’m training for the promotion that I’ll get in a couple months) for a job I’m really enjoying. I was disliking my previous job more and more, so this is a welcome change.
For at least 10 years, I’ve wondered why men don’t wear skirts, because I’ve always imagined that they are fantastically comfortable. It only recently occurred to me that, as a human with money, I can give that money to people who will deliver skirts to my front door, and I can wear them around the house for increased comfort without embarrassment because I live alone. I can officially confirm that they are wonderfully comfortable, at least in my opinion. However this does run contrary to the opinion of, well, pretty much every woman I’ve talked to.
Possible interest in Louisiana Meetup?
This seems like a case of privileging the hypothesis. Why should we have to show that early retirement + EA volunteering is superior to working a standard job and donating free cash flow, and not the other way around?
You can also be motivated by “Earning to Give”, or something to the same effect. That was largely the point of my thread.
Probably because it’s largely composed of or at least represented by the kind of people who REALLY like living in places like NYC and the Bay Area, which are the opposite of frugal.
This is actually a point I have made to myself about the movement.
keep working a high-paying job for sometime regardless. That way, he could gain valuable experience, and use the money he earns to eventually become financially independent, i.e., ‘retire early’. Then, when he is age forty or something, he can do valuable work as a non-profit manager or researcher or personal assistant for free.
This is a career path I am very seriously considering. At the very least, I will continue to invest/save my money, if for no other reason that it doesn’t seem intuitively obvious to me that I should prefer saving 100 lives this year to 104 lives next year. Add to this that I expect the EA movement to more accurately determine which charities are the most effective in future years (MIRI is highly uncertain to be the most effective, but could potentially be much more effective) and subtract the fact that donations to current effective charities will potentially eliminate some low hanging fruit. After all of that, I suspect it is probably a little more optimal to save money and donate later than to donate now. However I still can’t shake the feeling that I’m just writing reasons for my bottom line of not giving my money away. This is a difficult question that there have been a number of threads on, and I don’t claim to have a good answer to it, only my answer.
Thanks for such an in-depth reply.
I’m a vegan for ethical reasons. I’m not rigid about it, (the bean burgers I mention contain small amounts of eggs, for example) but I definitely watch which animal products I consume. If there weren’t healthy ways to get something critical, I would probably make an exception. I tend to believe that there is a vegan substitute for just about anything, however I’m open to be proven wrong.
I just set up a Chronometer account, that seems like a good service. Is there a way to put exact recipes in? I put in my breakfast this morning, which was some leftover homemade bread I made last night. Chronometer said that “homemade bread” had a gram of trans fats in it, which I doubt is accurate. I would suppose that there is high variation in nonstandard food items, and I’m hoping there’s a good way to address this.
A few other things have been causing me look at supplements, and this thread is making me seriously consider developing a regimen. I’m not sure where the best place to start is. On an intuitive level, there are a few supplements that seem like they would be common sense for me:
Melatonin—I just started working a shift schedule, 7 day shifts / 4 off / 7 graveyard shifts / 2 off / 7 evening shift / 1 off. It seems common sense that melatonin would increase quality of sleep, which is a large problem with the rotating sleep schedule. I see one of the results for my Amazon search has turned up Valerian instead. Does anyone have experience with this relative to melatonin?
Vitamin D—I really only leave the house when I have to. Pretty much the stereotypical stay-inside nerd.
Algae oil—I recently (about a year go) became a vegan, but I’m not sure I’m doing it very healthily. From what I’ve read, Algae oil is the best substitute for fish oil.
Multivitamin—I have a bottle of multivitamins that I theoretically take every day, but am actually horrible at following through. Hopefully developing a more structured regimen will help with this, what with the cognitive dissonance and all.
Whey protein—I used to be very successful at drinking a protein shake every morning before work (I have been a vegetarian for many years) but I developed a distaste for them. Since then, I’ve started eating 2 bean burgers just about every day that are my primary source (34g) of protein. I’m unsure exactly how much my other foods fill the 22g gap between this and the recommendation.
What other low hanging fruit is there for me to investigate? The above are only what seem obvious, they are not necessarily what is optimal. Particularly, information on any supplements important for vegans would be helpful.
I’m not sure any of those things measure incorruptibility.
For those that have mentioned a lack of a ruler, I used this one online: http://iruler.net/.
Might be worth it to link in the survey, if it’s still editable.
You should probably Rot13 this. I scanned the comments before I did the survey, and I couldn’t remember why I was so confident in the correct answer, but I was.
I’ll play.