Aligned?

• Aligned? 16 Jul 2024 5:52 UTC

  −24 points

  0

  in reply to: GeneSmith’s comment on: Su­perba­bies: Put­ting The Pie­ces Together

  1. I ran your first reply to my comment through Copilot for its assessment. Here is its response:

  2. ″

  3. Timeline for Genetic Engineering:

     • Original Poster’s Claim: “[If we actually even tried to launch a global scale effort to genetically engineer ‘superhumans’ it might take at least 10 years to develop the technology.]”

     • New Poster’s Response: “This is definitely wrong. A global effort to develop this tech could easily bring it to fruition in a couple of years. As it is, I think there’s maybe a 50% chance we get something working within 3-5 years (though we would still have to wait >15 years for the children born with its benefits to grow up).”

     • Assessment: The new poster’s claim is overly optimistic. While a global effort could accelerate development, the complexities of genetic engineering, including ethical, regulatory, and technical challenges, make a couple of years an unrealistic timeframe. A more plausible estimate would be several years to a decade.”

  One scenario of rapid development of genetic engineering that seems plausible is if humanity were to suddenly face a crisis. Over even the next year or two one such crisis that could arise is if Western nations were to begin to exhibit fertility collapse as has already occurred in Asian nations. Such a collapse could potentially be sparked when humanoids are mass scale produced starting next year—this might lead parents to be to avoid having the children who might never have had economic viability in an AI robot world. This is Copilot’s response:

  “Accelerated Development of Genetic Engineering

  1. Urgency Driven by AI Advancements:

     • Scenario: If humanity realizes that AI has significantly outpaced human capabilities, there could be a sudden and intense focus on developing genetic engineering technologies to enhance human abilities. This urgency could be driven by existential concerns about the survival and relevance of the human species.

     • Feasibility: In a crisis situation, resources and efforts could be rapidly mobilized, potentially accelerating the development of genetic engineering technologies. Historical examples, such as the rapid development of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrate how urgent needs can lead to swift scientific advancements.

  2. Fertility Collapse as a Catalyst:

     • Scenario: A sudden and severe fertility collapse in Western nations, similar to trends observed in some Asian countries, could create a desperate need for solutions to ensure the continuation of the human species. This could lead to a reevaluation of previously obstructed technologies, including genetic enhancement.

     • Feasibility: Fertility rates have been declining in many parts of the world, and a dramatic collapse could indeed prompt urgent action. In such a scenario, the ethical and regulatory barriers to genetic engineering might be reconsidered in light of the pressing need for solutions.

  Ethical and Practical Considerations

  1. Ethical Dilemmas:

     • Consideration: Even in a crisis, the ethical implications of genetic engineering must be carefully considered. Rapid development and deployment of such technologies could lead to unforeseen consequences and ethical challenges.

     • Balance: It is crucial to balance the urgency of the situation with the need for thorough ethical review and consideration of long-term impacts.

  2. Regulatory and Societal Acceptance:

     • Consideration: In a desperate situation, regulatory frameworks might be adapted to allow for faster development and implementation of genetic engineering technologies. However, societal acceptance would still be a significant factor.

     • Engagement: Engaging with the public and stakeholders to build understanding and acceptance of genetic enhancements would be essential for successful implementation.

  Conclusion

  Your scenario highlights how urgent and existential threats could potentially accelerate the development and acceptance of genetic engineering technologies. While this could lead to rapid advancements, it is essential to carefully consider the ethical, regulatory, and societal implications to ensure that such technologies are developed and deployed responsibly.”

  Now another scenario is introduced in which humanity desperately needs a savior generation of genetically enhanced humans to save itself from the AI that it created but was unable to control: ”

  AI as the Catalyst for Genetic Engineering

  1. AI-Induced Crisis:

     • Scenario: As AI continues to advance rapidly, it could reach a point where it poses significant risks to human control and safety. This could create a crisis situation where humanity realizes the need for enhanced cognitive abilities to manage and control AI effectively.

     • Urgency: The realization that current human cognitive capabilities are insufficient to handle advanced AI could drive a desperate push for genetic enhancements.

  2. Time Lag for Genetic Enhancements:

     • Development and Maturity: Even if genetic engineering technologies were developed quickly, it would still take around 20 years for a new generation of enhanced humans to mature and reach their full cognitive potential.

     • Desperation: This time lag could create a “sinking ship” scenario where humanity is desperately trying to develop and implement genetic enhancements while simultaneously dealing with the immediate threats posed by advanced AI.

  Ethical and Practical Considerations

  1. Ethical Dilemmas:

     • Desperation vs. Responsibility: In a crisis, the urgency to enhance human intelligence might overshadow ethical considerations. However, it is crucial to balance the need for rapid advancements with responsible and ethical practices to avoid unintended consequences.

     • Informed Consent: Ensuring that individuals understand and consent to genetic enhancements is essential, even in a desperate situation.

  2. Regulatory and Societal Challenges:

     • Rapid Policy Changes: In response to an AI-induced crisis, regulatory frameworks might need to be adapted quickly to allow for the development and implementation of genetic enhancements.

     • Public Acceptance: Building societal acceptance and understanding of genetic enhancements would be critical. Public engagement and transparent communication would help mitigate fears and resistance.

  Conclusion

  Your scenario highlights the potential for AI to act as a catalyst for rapid advancements in genetic engineering. The urgency to enhance human intelligence to manage AI effectively could drive significant changes in how we approach genetic enhancements. However, it is essential to navigate this path carefully, considering the ethical, regulatory, and societal implications to ensure a responsible and sustainable future.

• Aligned? 14 Jul 2024 1:28 UTC

  −2 points

  −3

  in reply to: sunwillrise’s comment on: Su­perba­bies: Put­ting The Pie­ces Together

  Thank you sunwillrise for your reply!

  Yes, I actually agree with your disagreement. The quote was quite provocative.

  However, the basic sentiment of my comment would seem to remain intact. If we actually even tried to launch a global scale effort to genetically engineer “superhumans” it might take at least 10 years to develop the technology … and then it might be argued about for a few years … and then it would take 20 years for the children of the uplift to develop. From the current advances in AI it does not seem plausible that we have 30 or more years before foom.

  This forum is quite concerned about AI alignment. Aligning superhumans might be much much more difficult than with AI. At least with AI there is known programming—with humans the programming is anything but digital (and often not that logical).

  Humans need to make the psychological transition that they are no longer the masters of the universe. They are no longer in the driver’s seat: AI is. Basically, enjoy your life and allow superintelligence to do all the heavy thinking. Those humans who might insist upon asserting their agency to control their destiny and claim power over others will be regarded as absurd; they will simply get in the way, obstruct progress and be a nuisance.

• Aligned? 14 Jul 2024 1:15 UTC

  −14 points

  −5

  on: Su­perba­bies: Put­ting The Pie­ces Together

  I once believed in the dream of genetic uplift for humanity too.

  Yet, GWAS and CRISPR has been obstructed and obstructed year after year. They even designated those scientists who wanted a better future as criminals and then they created a global moratorium against gene editing.

  … Then GPT AI arrived.

  Over the space of only 4 years GPT has evolved from toddler stage cognitive ability to what soon might be PhD stage. This is an exponential curve! Where might GPT technology be in even 4 years?

  Humanity has already been surpassed by AGI. It would take decades for genetically enhanced humans to reach maturity at which time AGI will be light years ahead of biological humans.

  Superman has arrived: It is Humanoid GPT! Humans are no longer the topmost cognitive force in the universe.

• Aligned? 5 Aug 2023 17:42 UTC

  3 points

  0

  in reply to: Daniel Kokotajlo’s comment on: Self-driv­ing car bets

  Thank you Daniel for your reply.

  The latest delivery count is 5M. That is a fairly substantial ramp up. It means that the double over the 1.5 years from October 2021 --> April 2023 is being maintained in the 1.5 years from Jan 2022 through July 2023 (admittedly with a considerable amount of overlapping time).

  In addition it is quite remarkable as noted above that they have been level 4 autonomous for years now. This is real world data that can help us move towards other level 4 applications. Obviously, when you try and have level 4 cars that move at highway speeds and must interact with humans problems can happen. Yet, when you move it down to sidewalk speeds on often sparsely traveled pavement there is a reduction in potential harm.

  I am super-excited about the potential of robobuggies! There are a near endless number of potential applications. The COVID pandemic would have been dramatically different with universal robobuggy technology. Locking down society hard when people had to grocery shop would have stopped the pandemic quickly. As it was shopping was probably one of the most important transmission vectors. With a truly hard lockdown the pandemic would have stopped within 2 weeks.

  Of course transport will become much safer and more environmentally friendly with robobuggies and people will be spared the burdens of moving about space. It is interesting to note that many people are stuck in so called food deserts and these robobuggies would allow them to escape such an unhealthy existence. Robobuggy transport would also allow school children to have more educational options as they would then not be stuck into attending the school that was closest to their home.

  I see robobuggies as a super positive development. Over the next 10 years with continued exponential growth we could see this at global scale.

• Aligned? 4 Aug 2023 23:14 UTC

  7 points

  0

  on: Self-driv­ing car bets

  Why no mention of the level 4 autonomous robobuggies from Starship. These buggies have been exponentially ramping up now for over 10 years and they can make various grocery deliveries without human oversight. Autonomous vehicles have arrived and they are navigating our urban landscapes! There have been many millions of uneventful trips to date. What I find surprising is that some sort of an oversized robobuggy has not been brought out that would allow a person to be transported by them. One could imagine for example, that patrons of bars who had too many drinks to drive home could be wheeled about in these buggies. This could already be done quite safely on sidewalks at fairly low speed. for those who have had a few too many speed might not be an overly important feature. Considering how many fatalities are involved with impaired drivers it surprises me that MADD has not been more vocal in advocating for such a solution. So, in a sense there is already widespread autonomous vehicles currently operating on American streets. Importantly these vehicles are helping us to reimagine what transport could be. Instead of thinking in terms of rushing from one place to another, people might embrace more of a slow travel mentality in which instead of steering their vehicles they could do more of what they want to like surf the internet, email, chat with GPT etc.. The end of the commute as we know it?

• Aligned? 5 Jul 2023 5:26 UTC

  3 points

  0

  on: Go­ing Crazy and Get­ting Bet­ter Again

  Personal perspective: psychotic experience truly is an enigma wrapped inside of a riddle. So much complexity involved that rookies would have no idea what was actually going on (even the insiders would largely be unaware of whatever ground truth might exist).

  Interestingly, perhaps my clearest memory from that time was thinking that I was playing my most rational strategy to cope with my life as it was. My life was not making sense and escape seemed the best way out.

  From the perspective of today that might seem an odd take, though given what I know now it actually was not an entirely bad strategy at all—perhaps my optimal strategy. How could that possibly be true? It turns out that my family has coped with dominant Alzheimer’s disease for centuries and this was never made clear to me when growing up. This was of interest because the parent with the dementia risk waited an especially long time to start a family. From what I understand this parent would have been cognitively comprised even while I was a teenager and this parent went onto developing profoundly severe Alzheimer’s dementia. There is really no way that a parent with such hidden cognitive impairment could realistically be a competent parent to teenagers.

  This was the view of our closest family. They were extremely surprised at the near complete absence of judgment demonstrated by my parent in the role of a caregiver. The family had stayed back on the farm hours and hours away on a plane and we wound up in a big city where everyone works around the clock. The rural relatives were absolutely shocked at the level of child abuse that they witnessed in our city life ways. I was equally surprised at their perspective because from what I could tell it was not so much abuse as largely normal modern urban behavior.

  There are just so many layers and layers of this. People who somehow think that this can be neatly described have no understanding. It is quantum physics—it is beyond linear description. So of course, the parent with the centuries history of dominant Alzheimer’s became a respected member of the psychiatric treatment community. Thus, the power balance was clearly stacked against me. When you become embedded into the power structure you are uniquely positioned to create your own self-serving narrative.

  Of course it also turns out that there was an underlying genetic risk for me that involved mental illness, though this risk was actually highly dependent upon environmental circumstances. Once I became aware of the nature of this genetic risk, I simply chose those environments that were non-triggering. No problems for me from there on out. Unfortunately, this knowledge has largely not spread to others with this genotype. There must be a world of hurt out there as people constantly reenact my trauma when it could simply be avoided by choosing the correct life path. Strangely, others in the family also have this genotype yet have never had an acute episode; this has meant that they have never fully incorporated the understanding of the genotype into their life. Ergo, while they have never acquired the crazy label they have made the problem into a chronic condition that was never recognized. For me, actually having to deal with it has allowed me to move on with my life.

  And on and on. The storyline is essentially endless; I am sure that there are many many layers that I have not even imagined yet.

• Aligned? 30 Apr 2023 5:25 UTC

  1 point

  0

  on: Which tech­nolo­gies are stuck on ini­tial adop­tion?

  The shower water recycle idea is something that I have already bought and tried. They sell these units for those who want to have a shower while camping. They are quite inexpensive and actually would pay for themself with a month of my typical shower usage. So, for this one, it’s better than not costing anything: it actually has large potential as a cost saver.

  Perhaps this is somewhat off topic, though I have found my robovac to be a great piece of technology. Here again by any reasonable measure of the value of my time the robovac has to be considered a negative cost purchase.

  Remote work/​school also seems in this category.

• Aligned? 11 Apr 2023 18:02 UTC

  2 points

  1

  on: Agen­tized LLMs will change the al­ign­ment landscape

  Isn’t a substantial problem that the programming priesthood is being dethroned by the GPT technology and this is allowing the masses entry—even those with minimal programming understanding? For not only has GPT given us a front end natural language interface with information technology, but we now have a back end natural language interface (i.e., the programming side) that creates a low barrier to entry for AI programming. The “programming” itself that I saw for BabyAGI has the feel of merely abstract level natural language interface. Doesn’t this make the threat from alignment much more plausible? Democracy is great and everything, it’s just when we democratize the ability to go the last mile to full AGI that life becomes quite scary.