Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel

Karma: 5,600

″ (...) the term technical is a red flag for me, as it is many times used not for the routine business of implementing ideas but for the parts, ideas and all, which are just hard to understand and many times contain the main novelties.”
- Saharon Shelah
”A little learning is a dangerous thing ;
Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring” - Alexander Pope

As a true-born Dutchman I endorse Crocker’s rules.

For my most of my writing see my short-forms (new shortform, old shortform)

Twitter: @FellowHominid

Personal website: https://sites.google.com/view/afdago/home

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 16, 2025, 9:52 PM
3 points
1
in reply to: habryka’s comment on: Annapurna’s Shortform
Much appreciated Habryka-san!
You might be interested in my old shortform on the military balance of power between US and China too. It’s a bit dated by now—the importance of drones has become much more clear by now [I think the evidence that we are in a military technological revolution on par with the introduction of guns] but you may find it of interest regardless.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 16, 2025, 6:23 PM
7 points
1
in reply to: JohnofCharleston’s comment on: Annapurna’s Shortform
According to Ukraine drone operators western drones are often not even regarded as very good. Expensive, overengineered, fail often, haven’t kept pace with rapid innovation during the Ukraine war.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 14, 2025, 2:58 PM
5 points
3
in reply to: 1a3orn’s comment on: Annapurna’s Shortform
Note also in PPP China is already 50% ahead of the US

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 14, 2025, 2:56 PM
35 points
18
in reply to: habryka’s comment on: Annapurna’s Shortform
The US military has about 10k drones of all sizes. Ukraine alone builds 2-4 million drones a year, mostly smaller. Most of the production involves assembling chinese made components. China has something like ninety percent of the global market share for components of small drones.
There is not a single NATO country currently thathat is building drones at scale.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 6, 2025, 11:23 AM
3 points
0
in reply to: Q Home’s comment on: A single principle related to many Alignment subproblems?
Circling back to this. I’m interested in your thoughts.

I think the Algorithmic Statistics framework [including the K-structure function] is a good fit for what you want here in 2.

to recall the central idea is that any object is ultimately just a binary string $s$ that we encode through a two-part code: a code $c$ encoding a finite set of strings $A_{c}$ such that $s \in A_{c}$ with a pointer to $s$
within $A_{c}$ .
For example $s$ could encode a dataset while $c$ would encode the $ϵ -$ typical data strings for a given model probability distribution in a set of hypotheses for some small $ϵ > 0$ . This is a way to talk completely deterministically about (probabilistic model), e.g. like a LLM trained in a transformer architecture.
This framework is flexible enough to describe two codes $c_{1}, c_{2}$ encoding $A_{c_{1}}, A_{c_{2}}$ such that $x \in A_{c_{1}}$
and $x \in A_{c_{2}}$ as required. One can e.g. easily find simple examples of this using mixtures of gaussians.
I’d be curious what you think!

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 5, 2025, 9:28 AM
50 points
12
on: “Flaky breakthroughs” pervade coaching — but no one tracks them
When I first encountered the breakthrough people in the Bay I thought that surely they must be aware that 90 percent of breakthroughs are flaky, don’t last and the last 10 percent gives at most moderate benefits [or harms....]. Surely any educated person past the age of twenty knew that coaches were the scammers, grifters that spiritual gurus almost without a fault turn out to be sexual predators, that most studies that claim strong benefits from interventions are p-hacked garbage thrust on the trusting public by a swarm of self-interested wilfully high-on-their-own-supply neuroscientists slash drugs addicts, that well-done long-term scientific studies pretty conclusively show that lifestyle interventions rarely work etc etc?
Entering the rat/ea sphere I met many very smart people who were completely taken in I was quite mystified by their behaviour and seeming earnestness. I had many speculations about this phenomenon: was it a social signalling thing? A cultural difference between California and my home? Did it bring people social benefits in terms of friends and romantic prospects? Was the coaches thing a way to signal wealth, or maybe an euphemism for a therapist? Was the spiritual guru shtick a way to pick up chicks? just a type-of-guy like the jock, nerd, or the moody artist that a certain type of girl is into? Was the whole thing an act, mostly for fun, a passing fad, a folly of youth they would harmlessly grow out of? Were the crazy diets, hacky lifestyle interventions just a fun way to pass the time, the equivalent of brewing craft beer or knitting circles in another place? Was I just too cynical, too european, too upper class to appreciate something beautiful, creative, American, innovative I couldn’t quite fit into my preconceived notions? Was I simply being judgemental because I lacked the brain structures for woo vibing?
The sad thing is that ultimately I concluded that no—it seems many or most of them were- are!- honestly and earnestly deluded. As the years passed a steady trickle of post-mortems came in. People who are after many years of fruitless questing slowly and begrudgingly admitted that the whole thing was misguided, some still in the overeager tones of having achieved a great insight. And that it is—a great insight. A hard-earned and slow-learned insight but a great insight nonetheless. Happiness is not achieved by one weird trick—the psychological equivalent of the silicon valley unicorn. They are gained by luck of genes and circumstance, a bit of solid work, a cultivation of a carefree attitude and solid group of friends, an honesty with oneself and ones limitations, an acceptance of the way things are.
It is uncouth and unbecoming for me to gloat ′ I told you so’ because the truth is I did not. I bit my tongue. I made an sly remark here, an ironic allusion there. I thought we were all in on the game surely but in the end what I should have done was speak frankly and earnestly: this path is misguided, not just the specific New Thing you are trying—the entire philosophy can be yeeted. Don’t trust these grand claims that people about completely changing their lives. Distrust and verify. Check in a year later. Ask their mother how they are really doing. Ask: who benefits? Is this objectively surprising claim a conveniently high-status thing to say? etc and many more
There is no end of samsara in this life. The human RL loop won’t allow it.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 3, 2025, 12:43 PM
6 points
4
in reply to: Jan_Kulveit’s comment on: johnswentworth’s Shortform
John graciously and brilliantly came up with the laser tag guns when he was captain-by-night for agent foundations 2024.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 1, 2025, 8:50 PM
2 points
0
in reply to: gwern’s comment on: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s Shortform
I spotcheked the first claim about eratosthenes.
The second part on eratothenes is directly from wikipedia.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Jun 1, 2025, 1:14 PM
0 points
0
on: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s Shortform
Did the Classical Greeks have any conception of when the Iliad happened?
According to Claude the Classical Greeks not only believed in the historicity of the Iliad—they also had surprisingly accurate dating!
The ancient Greeks generally did believe the Iliad described real historical events, though their understanding of it was more nuanced than simply accepting every detail as literal fact.
Belief in Historical Reality
Most classical Greeks, including prominent historians and philosophers, treated the Trojan War as a genuine historical event. Herodotus, often called the “father of history,” accepted the war’s basic historicity while noting some details might be embellished. Thucydides acknowledged it as real but suggested Homer exaggerated its scale and importance. Even skeptical thinkers rarely questioned whether Troy existed or whether some great conflict had occurred there.
The Greeks saw the Iliad as part of their cultural heritage and genealogical history. Many aristocratic families traced their lineages back to Homeric heroes, and various city-states claimed connections to characters from the epic. This wasn’t just literary appreciation—it was ancestral history that helped legitimize political claims and cultural identity.
Conceptions of Timing
The Greeks developed surprisingly specific chronologies for when they believed the Trojan War occurred. The most widely accepted dating placed it in what we would call the late Bronze Age:
- Eratosthenes (3rd century BCE) dated the fall of Troy to 1184 BCE
- Apollodorus placed it around 1184-1174 BCE
- Other chronographers generally agreed on dates in the late 12th century BCE
These dates weren’t arbitrary guesses. Greek scholars used genealogical calculations, counting generations backward from known historical figures and events. They also cross-referenced different mythological and semi-historical traditions to create coherent timelines.
The Greeks distinguished between the “heroic age” (when the Trojan War occurred) and their own classical period, understanding that considerable time had passed. They saw this earlier era as one when gods more directly intervened in human affairs and when individual heroes possessed greater strength and courage than contemporary people.

Alexander: this lines up very well with current day estimation of historicity of Troy—where the Iliad is a orally transmitted epic poetry referring to some garbling of real events, places and names about a Hittite(-allied) city state Wilusa in West Anatolia in the late bronze age around 1200 BC.

btw: Eratothenes is quite an impressive fellow [ Wikipedia]:
Eratosthenes of Cyrene (/ɛrəˈtɒsθəniːz/; Ancient Greek: Ἐρατοσθένης [eratostʰénɛːs]; c. 276 BC – c. 195/194 BC) was an Ancient Greek polymath: a mathematician, geographer, poet, astronomer, and music theorist. He was a man of learning, becoming the chief librarian at the Library of Alexandria.

He is best known for being the first person known to calculate the Earth’s circumference, which he did by using the extensive survey results he could access in his role at the Library. His calculation was remarkably accurate (his error margin turned out to be less than 1%).^[2]^[3] He was the first to calculate Earth’s axial tilt, which similarly proved to have remarkable accuracy.^[4]^[5] He created the first global projection of the world, incorporating parallels and meridians based on the available geographic knowledge of his era.^[4]
Eratosthenes was the founder of scientific chronology;^[6] he used Egyptian and Persian records to estimate the dates of the main events of the Trojan War, dating the sack of Troy to 1183 BC. In number theory, he introduced the sieve of Eratosthenes, an efficient method of identifying prime numbers and composite numbers.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel May 30, 2025, 11:39 PM
4 points
0
in reply to: Ryan Kidd’s comment on: Ryan Kidd’s Shortform
How did you determine the list of AI safety and adjacent organizations?

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel May 27, 2025, 9:33 AM
3 points
0
in reply to: Q Home’s comment on: A single principle related to many Alignment subproblems?
Here—plugging into Gemini should work.
see also Ilya’s 30 paper list to John Carmack.

EDIT: ah I see you’re asking for a more defined question.
I don’t have time to answer in detail atm but it’s a very good question.
One thing you might want to take a look at is: https://homepages.cwi.nl/~paulv/papers/similarity.pdf
https://homepages.cwi.nl/~paulv/papers/itw05.pdf

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel May 26, 2025, 6:19 PM
5 points
0
on: A single principle related to many Alignment subproblems?
So I didnt read your whole post but I basically agree that many alignment agendas come down to very similar things [eg ARC wordcelery]
The idea you are looking for is the Kolmogorov structure function.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel May 19, 2025, 5:12 PM
2 points
0
in reply to: interstice’s comment on: Existing UDTs test the limits of Bayesianism (and consistency)
Yes.
For the interested reader, this line of reasoning is what @Vanessa Kosoy calls metacosmology.
It’s also what ultimately underlies Christiano’s malign Solomonoff prior argument.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel May 16, 2025, 11:36 AM
4 points
0
in reply to: niplav’s comment on: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s Shortform
In-person.
Yes acausal trade stuff.
Yes it’s the Mariven meme

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel May 16, 2025, 9:33 AM
6 points
0
on: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s Shortform
Is there interest in an anthropics arcana festival ? Reply with party react for yes

Proceedings of ILIAD: Lessons and Progress

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel and JessRiedel

Apr 28, 2025, 7:04 PM

77 points

5 comments8 min readLW link

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Apr 25, 2025, 1:09 PM
21 points
0
on: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s Shortform
Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects?

We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched employer-employee data in Denmark. AI chatbots are now widespread—most employers encourage their use, many deploy in-house models, and training initiatives are common. These firm-led investments boost adoption, narrow demographic gaps in take-up, enhance workplace utility, and create new job tasks. Yet, despite substantial investments, economic impacts remain minimal. Using difference-in-differences and employer policies as quasi-experimental variation, we estimate precise zeros: AI chatbots have had no significant impact on earnings or recorded hours in any occupation, with confidence intervals ruling out effects larger than 1%. Modest productivity gains (average time savings of 2.8%), combined with weak wage pass-through, help explain these limited labor market effects. Our findings challenge narratives of imminent labor market transformation due to Generative AI.

From marginal revolution.
What does this crowd think? These effects are surprisingly small. Do we believe these effects? Anecdotally the effect of LLMs has been enormous for my own workflow and colleagues. How can this be squared with the supposedly tiny labor market effect?
Are we that selected of a demographic?

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel Apr 19, 2025, 8:01 PM
2 points
0
in reply to: Dalcy’s comment on: Darcy’s Shortform
@Fernando Rosas

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel 16 Apr 2025 13:44 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: tailcalled’s comment on: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s Shortform
I am not sure what ‘it’ refers to in ‘it is bad’.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel 16 Apr 2025 10:28 UTC
2 points
0
in reply to: tailcalled’s comment on: Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel’s Shortform
People read more into this shortform than I intended. It is not a cryptic reaction, criticism, or reply to/of another post.
I don’t know what you mean by intelligent [pejorative] but it sounds sarcarcastic.
To be clear, the low predictive efficiency is not a dig at archeology. It seems I have triggered something here.
Whether a question/domain has low or high (marginal) predictive effiency is not a value judgement, just an observation.

Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel

Pro­ceed­ings of ILIAD: Les­sons and Progress

Proceedings of ILIAD: Lessons and Progress