Adam B

Karma: 225

Adam B 15 Jan 2025 11:46 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Raemon’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thanks Raemon – I’m a fan of ~all these ideas! I’m not spending much time on Fatebook specifically these days (busy with various other projects), but your feedback is and has been super useful.

Adam B 15 Jan 2025 11:37 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: CstineSublime’s comment on: Adam B’s Shortform
Here’s what the question creation interface looks like – you can create any question, and there’s a bunch of suggestions to help you get started:
Here’s what it looks like when you’ve created some questions. I made these predictions with my partner, so you can see her predictions on the question that’s expanded:
For more info, I’d suggest just using the website itself. It is designed to be super easy to use and self-describing!
The website is part of Fatebook, a tool for rapidly tracking predictions. Predict Your Year is a specialised page for creating yearly predictions (which is a popular activity for many people, e.g. inspired by Scott Alexander’s annual prediction posts). You can read more about Fatebook in this LessWrong post.

Adam B 8 Jan 2025 14:24 UTC
1 point
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on: Adam B’s Shortform
Predict your 2025: a website for recording probabilistic forecasts about your life and the world in the next year.

Adam B 7 Jan 2025 15:53 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: meedstrom’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thanks for the suggestion—you can now sign in to Fatebook with email!

Adam B 22 Dec 2024 13:02 UTC
3 points
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in reply to: habryka’s comment on: (The) Lightcone is nothing without its people: LW + Lighthaven’s big fundraiser
Relevant data: https://x.com/wilhelmscreamin/status/1870804383283433731

Adam B 9 Dec 2024 13:06 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: habryka’s comment on: (The) Lightcone is nothing without its people: LW + Lighthaven’s big fundraiser
my current guess is 15-20% of new users are already referred to the site because ChatGPT or Claude told them to read things here
Wow, this is higher than I would have expected! Do you have metrics showing this or otherwise what makes you think so?

Adam B 23 Nov 2024 16:50 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: brambleboy’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thank you!
Currently tags seem to only be useful for filtering your track record. I’d like to be able to filter the forecast list by tag.
I agree this would be nice. But try clicking on a tag to see all of your forecasts under it!

Adam B 18 Oct 2024 10:56 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Richard Horvath’s comment on: Concrete benefits of making predictions
I think it’s still very useful to be able to predict your own behaviour (including in the case where you know you’ve made a prediction about it).
Things can get weird if you care more about the outcome of the prediction than the outcome of the event in itself, but this should rarely be the case—and is worth avoiding, I think.

Adam B 17 Oct 2024 12:00 UTC
1 point
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on: Rashomon—A newsbetting site
Cool idea! I am not sure you’d be able to move to real money betting given that cheating is trivial (just google the text of the article).

Adam B 26 Feb 2024 14:52 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Eli Tyre’s comment on: Fatebook for Chrome: Make and embed forecasts anywhere on the web
Here’s an alpha version of a Firefox version!
If you run into any problems, it would be great to hear about them (e.g. by email).

Adam B 16 Oct 2023 8:41 UTC
11 points
2
on: RSPs are pauses done right
most potentially dangerous capabilities should be highly correlated, such that measuring any of them should be okay. Thus, I think it should be fine to mostly focus on measuring the capabilities that are most salient to policymakers and most clearly demonstrate risks.
Once labs are trying to pass capability evaluations, they will spend effort trying to suppress the specific capabilities being evaluated*, so I think we’d expect them to stop being so highly correlated.
* If they try methods of more generally suppressing the kinds of capabilities that might be dangerous, I think they’re likely to test them most on the capabilities being evaluated by RSPs.

Adam B 16 Aug 2023 15:24 UTC
1 point
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on: Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app
We’ve added a new deck of questions to the calibration training app—The World, then and now.
What was the world like 200 years ago, and how has it changed? Featuring charts from Our World in Data.
Thanks to Johanna Einsiedler and Jakob Graabak for helping build this deck!
We’ve also split the existing questions into decks, so you can focus on the topics you’re most interested in:

Adam B 28 Jul 2023 18:26 UTC
3 points
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in reply to: Yoav Ravid’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
This should be fixed now (it was a timezone-related bug!)

Adam B 28 Jul 2023 17:55 UTC
6 points
5
in reply to: mukashi’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I’ve made a basic version of Fatebook for Discord—you can install it here!

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:31 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: mesaoptimizer’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I’ve also added the ability to import your forecasts from a spreadsheet/CSV file, which I think is also useful for switching tools: fatebook.io/import-from-spreadsheet

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Raemon’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
This is now added (see below)

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:29 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: Joe Kwon’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
I’ve now added this! You can also see your track record for questions with specific tags, e.g.:
What links here?
- Adam B's comment on Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions by Adam B (25 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC; 1 point)

Adam B 25 Jul 2023 12:28 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: vyasnikhil96’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thanks, fixed!

Adam B 15 Jul 2023 12:06 UTC
3 points
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in reply to: Arun Johnson’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Cool thanks! For now you can use https://fatebook.io on your phone, do you think a native app would be much better?

Adam B 13 Jul 2023 10:19 UTC
7 points
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in reply to: Aryeh Englander’s comment on: Introducing Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
Thanks for asking—I’m interested in doing iOS and Android apps! It’d be helpful to hear if other people are keen for this to help prioritise.
For now, one option is to add a homescreen shortcut to the website in Chrome.