Fermi Estimation

TagLast edit: Feb 2, 2021, 10:18 AM by Yoav Ravid

A Fermi Estimation is a rough calculation which aims to be right within ~an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting a good enough to be useful answer without putting large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate.

Related Pages: Forecasting & Prediction

Fermi Estimates

lukeprogApr 11, 2013, 5:52 PM

120 points

110 comments13 min readLW link

How To Fermi Model

habryka and Eli Tyre

Sep 9, 2020, 5:13 AM

86 points

9 comments11 min readLW link 2 reviews

[Question] What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?

Eli TyreJul 25, 2021, 6:47 AM

38 points

16 comments1 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart London resident dies of a Russian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilanMar 10, 2022, 7:20 PM

40 points

8 comments4 min readLW link

(danielfilan.com)

Can Morality Be Quantified?

JuliusJan 9, 2024, 6:35 AM

3 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Ideas for benchmarking LLM creativity

gwernDec 16, 2024, 5:18 AM

60 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

(gwern.net)

An AI Race With China Can Be Better Than Not Racing

niplavJul 2, 2024, 5:57 PM

69 points

33 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] How to estimate confidence intervals for fermi estimate?

SønderjyeFeb 20, 2022, 1:26 AM

3 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Fermi estimation of the impact you might have working on AI safety

Fabien RogerMay 13, 2022, 5:49 PM

10 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

The impact you might have working on AI safety

Fabien RogerMay 29, 2022, 4:31 PM

5 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

Fermi Estimates and Probability Calibration

RaemonMay 15, 2018, 8:35 PM

4 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do I find tutors for obscure skills/subjects (i.e. fermi estimation tutors)

joraineSep 15, 2022, 1:15 AM

11 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate?

tgbJun 5, 2012, 3:15 AM

11 points

46 comments1 min readLW link

Rough calculations: Fermi and the art of guessing

XiXiDuSep 8, 2011, 10:39 AM

15 points

9 comments3 min readLW link

Make your own cost-effectiveness Fermi estimates for one-off problems

owencbDec 11, 2014, 12:00 PM

14 points

15 comments3 min readLW link

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research

owencbDec 11, 2014, 11:55 AM

33 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs

ChrisHallquistApr 8, 2013, 9:30 PM

25 points

40 comments5 min readLW link

Fermi Estimating How Long an Algorithm Takes

SatvikBeriAug 10, 2024, 1:34 AM

1 point

0 comments2 min readLW link

Using Expert Disagreement

dspeyerJan 16, 2020, 10:42 PM

13 points

1 comment5 min readLW link

The Evidence for Question Decomposition is Weak

niplavAug 28, 2023, 3:46 PM

22 points

6 comments5 min readLW link

The Math of Suspicious Coincidences

RokoFeb 7, 2024, 1:32 PM

24 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation On How Unlikely The Circumstantial Evidence Around Covid-19 Is

RokoFeb 7, 2024, 9:49 PM

−1 points

36 comments5 min readLW link

Just How Hard a Problem is Alignment?

Roger DearnaleyFeb 25, 2023, 9:00 AM

3 points

1 comment21 min readLW link

Do humans really learn from “little” data?

Alice WanderlandJan 14, 2025, 10:46 AM

14 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

(aliceandbobinwanderland.substack.com)

Replicators, Gods and Buddhist Cosmology

KristianRonnJan 16, 2025, 10:51 AM

15 points

3 comments26 min readLW link

Making better estimates with scarce information

Stan PinsentMar 22, 2023, 5:40 PM

11 points

5 comments10 min readLW link

Dialectical Bootstrapping

JohnicholasMar 13, 2009, 5:10 PM

22 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Probability and Politics

CarlShulmanNov 24, 2010, 5:02 PM

28 points

31 comments5 min readLW link

Soulmate Fermi Estimate + My A(ltr)u[t]istic Mating Strategy

Jordan ArelOct 12, 2023, 8:32 AM

0 points

9 comments3 min readLW link

Fermi Fingers

Optimization ProcessAug 9, 2021, 7:56 PM

28 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How much memory is reserved for cute kitten pictures?

BezziOct 4, 2021, 9:30 PM

4 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

How Many (Smallish) Organic Compounds Are There?

chemslugFeb 20, 2022, 4:43 AM

22 points

10 comments5 min readLW link

Squiggle: An Overview

ozziegooenNov 24, 2020, 3:00 AM

61 points

6 comments7 min readLW link

How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average?

Jordan ArelDec 8, 2022, 9:57 PM

4 points

5 comments14 min readLW link

Guesstimate: Why and how to use it

brook and chanamessinger

Jan 24, 2023, 4:24 PM

8 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

The Estimation Game: a monthly Fermi estimation web app

Sage Future and Adam B

Feb 20, 2023, 11:33 AM

20 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

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