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Eco­nomic Con­se­quences of AGI

TagLast edit: Jun 3, 2021, 11:24 PM by habryka

The economic consequences of artificial general intelligence arise from their fundamentally new properties compared to the human brains currently driving the economy. Once such digital minds become generally intelligent enough to perform a wide range of economic functions, they are likely to bring radical changes, creating great wealth, but also displacing humans out of more and more types of job.

An important aspect of the question is that of economic growth. The invention of AGI or WBE could cause a sudden increase in growth by adding machine intelligence to the pool of human innovators. Machine intelligence could be much cheaper to produce, faster, and qualitatively smarter than human talent. A feedback loop from better machine intelligence technology, to more and better machine researchers, back to better machine intelligence technology could ensue.

Robin Hanson has written much about the economics of whole brain emulation. In his view, the unrestricted creation of additional uploads will cause a Malthusian scenario, where upload wages fall to subsistence levels. He sees the transition to whole brain emulation as a jump to a new “growth mode” with higher exponential growth rates, similar to the transitions to agriculture and industry.

In “The Future of Human Evolution”, Nick Bostrom argues that in an emulated-brain society with individuals living at subsistence levels, entities that possess a large set of features we care about – which he calls flamboyant displays, or culture in general – will be outcompeted by more efficient ones that lack inefficient humans’ cultural aspects. This will lead to elimination of all forms of being that we care about. He proposes that only a Singleton could ensure strict control in order to prevent the elimination of culture through outcompetition.

Others predict that growth will blow up even more suddenly (up to the point where physical limits become relevant), and that growth will be concentrated in a smaller and more coherent set of agents, so that instead of continued free market competition, we will see a singleton emerge.

Blog posts

External links

See also

[Question] What Other Lines of Work are Safe from AI Au­toma­tion?

RogerDearnaleyJul 11, 2024, 10:01 AM
30 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

Some­thing Un­fath­omable: Unal­igned Hu­man­ity and how we’re rac­ing against death with death

Yuli_BanFeb 27, 2023, 11:37 AM
13 points
14 comments19 min readLW link

Rogue AGI Em­bod­ies Valuable In­tel­lec­tual Property

Jun 3, 2021, 8:37 PM
71 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

“Hereti­cal Thoughts on AI” by Eli Dourado

DragonGodJan 19, 2023, 4:11 PM
146 points
38 comments3 min readLW link
(www.elidourado.com)

Dragon Ball’s Hyper­bolic Time Chamber

gwernSep 2, 2012, 11:49 PM
50 points
65 comments1 min readLW link

Ar­gu­ment against 20% GDP growth from AI within 10 years [Linkpost]

aogaraSep 12, 2022, 4:08 AM
59 points
20 comments5 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

Adam Smith Meets AI Doomers

James_MillerJan 31, 2024, 3:53 PM
34 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Mod­ify­ing Jones’ “AI Dilemma” Model

harsimonyMar 4, 2024, 9:55 PM
5 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(splittinginfinity.substack.com)

The two-tiered society

Roman LeventovMay 13, 2024, 7:53 AM
5 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

The Great Data In­te­gra­tion Schlep

sarahconstantinSep 13, 2024, 3:40 PM
266 points
16 comments9 min readLW link
(sarahconstantin.substack.com)

By de­fault, cap­i­tal will mat­ter more than ever af­ter AGI

L Rudolf LDec 28, 2024, 5:52 PM
267 points
99 comments16 min readLW link
(nosetgauge.substack.com)

Eco­nomic Post-ASI Transition

Joel BurgetJan 1, 2025, 10:37 PM
20 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Cap­i­tal Own­er­ship Will Not Prevent Hu­man Disempowerment

berenJan 5, 2025, 6:00 AM
142 points
18 comments14 min readLW link

How quickly could robots scale up?

Benjamin_ToddJan 12, 2025, 5:01 PM
47 points
22 comments1 min readLW link
(benjamintodd.substack.com)

AGI Will Not Make La­bor Worthless

Maxwell TabarrokJan 12, 2025, 3:09 PM
−8 points
16 comments5 min readLW link
(www.maximum-progress.com)

Ap­ply­ing tra­di­tional eco­nomic think­ing to AGI: a trilemma

Steven ByrnesJan 13, 2025, 1:23 AM
138 points
32 comments3 min readLW link

AI Sum­mer Harvest

Cleo NardoApr 4, 2023, 3:35 AM
130 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­ces­sive AI growth-rate yields lit­tle so­cio-eco­nomic benefit.

Cleo NardoApr 4, 2023, 7:13 PM
27 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

Wel­come to the decade of Em

OzyrusApr 10, 2023, 7:45 AM
4 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Overem­ployed Via ChatGPT

ZviApr 18, 2023, 1:40 PM
58 points
7 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Chad Jones pa­per mod­el­ing AI and x-risk vs. growth

jasoncrawfordApr 26, 2023, 8:07 PM
39 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(web.stanford.edu)

Thriv­ing in the Weird Times: Prepar­ing for the 100X Economy

May 8, 2023, 1:44 PM
23 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

The im­pact of whole brain emulation

jefftkMay 14, 2013, 7:59 PM
4 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: Look­ing At Progress On C. elgans

jefftkOct 29, 2011, 3:21 PM
60 points
85 comments2 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion & DL: imi­ta­tion learn­ing for faster AGI?

gwernOct 22, 2018, 3:07 PM
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.reddit.com)

[link] Whole Brain Emu­la­tion and the Evolu­tion of Superorganisms

Wei DaiMay 3, 2011, 11:38 PM
25 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence via whole brain emulation

AlexMennenAug 17, 2016, 4:11 AM
15 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

Hedg­ing our Bets: The Case for Pur­su­ing Whole Brain Emu­la­tion to Safe­guard Hu­man­ity’s Future

inklesspenMar 1, 2010, 2:32 AM
14 points
248 comments3 min readLW link

New WBE implementation

LouieNov 30, 2012, 11:16 AM
27 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

In­ter­mit­tent Distil­la­tions #4: Semi­con­duc­tors, Eco­nomics, In­tel­li­gence, and Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress.

Mark XuJul 8, 2021, 10:14 PM
81 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

Some thoughts on David Rood­man’s GWP model and its re­la­tion to AI timelines

Tom DavidsonJul 19, 2021, 10:59 PM
32 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

The Solow-Swan model of eco­nomic growth

Matthew BarnettAug 29, 2021, 6:55 PM
31 points
6 comments11 min readLW link

AI art isn’t “about to shake things up”. It’s already here.

Davis_KingsleyAug 22, 2022, 11:17 AM
65 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

AI Timelines via Cu­mu­la­tive Op­ti­miza­tion Power: Less Long, More Short

jacob_cannellOct 6, 2022, 12:21 AM
139 points
33 comments6 min readLW link

Job Board (28 March 2033)

dr_sMar 28, 2023, 10:44 PM
20 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

AGI de­ploy­ment as an act of aggression

dr_sApr 5, 2023, 6:39 AM
28 points
30 comments13 min readLW link

The benev­olence of the butcher

dr_sApr 8, 2023, 4:29 PM
77 points
32 comments6 min readLW link1 review

Will peo­ple be mo­ti­vated to learn difficult dis­ci­plines and skills with­out eco­nomic in­cen­tive?

Roman LeventovMar 20, 2023, 9:26 AM
18 points
33 comments5 min readLW link

Phase tran­si­tions and AGI

Mar 17, 2022, 5:22 PM
45 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

cy­ber­punk raccoons

bhauthApr 28, 2023, 2:52 AM
20 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(bhauth.com)

2. AIs as Eco­nomic Agents

RogerDearnaleyNov 23, 2023, 7:07 AM
9 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Hyper­bolic takeoff

Ege ErdilApr 9, 2022, 3:57 PM
18 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Are healthy choices effec­tive for im­prov­ing live ex­pec­tancy any­more?

Christopher KingMay 8, 2023, 9:25 PM
6 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

After Over­mor­row: Scat­tered Mus­ings on the Im­me­di­ate Post-AGI World

Yuli_BanFeb 24, 2024, 3:49 PM
−3 points
0 comments26 min readLW link

Why Job Dis­place­ment Pre­dic­tions are Wrong: Ex­pla­na­tions of Cog­ni­tive Automation

Moritz WallawitschMay 30, 2023, 8:43 PM
−4 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI is a pro­cess

meijer1973Jun 8, 2023, 8:57 AM
2 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

What you re­ally mean when you claim to sup­port “UBI for job au­toma­tion”: Part 1

Deric ChengMay 13, 2024, 8:52 AM
17 points
14 comments10 min readLW link

Why Swiss watches and Tay­lor Swift are AGI-proof

Kevin KohlerSep 5, 2024, 1:23 PM
17 points
11 comments6 min readLW link
(machinocene.substack.com)

Univer­sal ba­sic in­come isn’t always AGI-proof

Kevin KohlerSep 5, 2024, 3:39 PM
5 points
3 comments7 min readLW link
(machinocene.substack.com)

La­bor Par­ti­ci­pa­tion is a High-Pri­or­ity AI Align­ment Risk

alexJun 17, 2024, 6:09 PM
4 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

La­bor Par­ti­ci­pa­tion is an Align­ment Risk

alexJun 25, 2024, 2:15 PM
−5 points
2 comments17 min readLW link

Em­bod­i­ment is Indis­pens­able for AGI

P. G. Keerthana GopalakrishnanJun 7, 2022, 9:31 PM
6 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(keerthanapg.com)

Brain­storm­ing: Slow Takeoff

David PiepgrassJan 23, 2024, 6:58 AM
2 points
0 comments51 min readLW link

“The Sin­gu­lar­ity Is Nearer” by Ray Kurzweil—Review

LavenderJul 8, 2024, 9:32 PM
22 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

AI Rights for Hu­man Safety

Simon GoldsteinAug 1, 2024, 11:01 PM
45 points
6 comments1 min readLW link
(papers.ssrn.com)

Dario Amodei — Machines of Lov­ing Grace

Matrice JacobineOct 11, 2024, 9:43 PM
62 points
26 comments1 min readLW link
(darioamodei.com)

Will we ever run out of new jobs?

Kevin KohlerAug 19, 2024, 3:04 PM
17 points
7 comments7 min readLW link
(machinocene.substack.com)

Model­ing AI-driven oc­cu­pa­tional change over the next 10 years and beyond

2120ethNov 12, 2024, 4:58 AM
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

The Fu­ture Value of Money - a new definition

B BretDec 30, 2024, 9:01 PM
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link

How Busi­ness Solved (?) the Hu­man Align­ment Problem

Gianluca CalcagniDec 31, 2024, 8:39 PM
−2 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

s/​acc: Safe Ac­cel­er­a­tionism Manifesto

lorepieriDec 19, 2023, 10:19 PM
−4 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(lorenzopieri.com)

The In­tel­li­gence Curse

lukedragoJan 3, 2025, 7:07 PM
102 points
27 comments18 min readLW link
(lukedrago.substack.com)

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

Jan 10, 2023, 4:06 PM
118 points
44 comments26 min readLW link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

Jan 10, 2023, 4:03 PM
23 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Un­der­stand­ing AI World Models w/​ Chris Canal

jacobhaimesJan 27, 2025, 4:32 PM
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(kairos.fm)

Hu­man’s roles in a post AGI era

JuliezhangggFeb 1, 2025, 9:16 PM
1 point
0 comments7 min readLW link

Post AGI effect prediction

JuliezhangggFeb 1, 2025, 9:16 PM
1 point
0 comments7 min readLW link
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