I think one of the concrete takeaways from GJP and related classes of things is that it’s possible to notice when experts are being stupid in ways that make sense given the incentives and/or the environment changing from the training data the expert is operating off of and then make *measured* bets against said stupidity, since a lot of money seems to go with expert consensus. Calling this an EMH failure seems sort of like...underestimating the ability of intelligence to generate an information advantage? Like, you can in fact just sit down with a blank sheet of paper and gain an information advantage, that’s what inventions are.
EMH actually claims that sitting down with a blank sheet of paper and gaining an information advantage is impossible, the market prices already incorporated all the public data. I agree that this assumption seems wrong (and the goal of my post was to provide an alternative assumption)
I think one of the concrete takeaways from GJP and related classes of things is that it’s possible to notice when experts are being stupid in ways that make sense given the incentives and/or the environment changing from the training data the expert is operating off of and then make *measured* bets against said stupidity, since a lot of money seems to go with expert consensus. Calling this an EMH failure seems sort of like...underestimating the ability of intelligence to generate an information advantage? Like, you can in fact just sit down with a blank sheet of paper and gain an information advantage, that’s what inventions are.
EMH actually claims that sitting down with a blank sheet of paper and gaining an information advantage is impossible, the market prices already incorporated all the public data. I agree that this assumption seems wrong (and the goal of my post was to provide an alternative assumption)