Assuming that we have no less than 20 problems and for each problem we have 80 per cent chances of success (if we know more, it is not a problem) we have total only 1 per cent of the total probability of success.
So, this method produces very pessimistic expectations even if problems themselves seems solvable. EY wrote somewhere that multiplying probabilities is bad way to estimate the chances of success of cryonics, as this method underestimate the growth of experience of the problem solver.
Another takeaway could be that we should search total AI safety solutions where we have less unknowns.
Assuming that we have no less than 20 problems and for each problem we have 80 per cent chances of success (if we know more, it is not a problem) we have total only 1 per cent of the total probability of success.
So, this method produces very pessimistic expectations even if problems themselves seems solvable. EY wrote somewhere that multiplying probabilities is bad way to estimate the chances of success of cryonics, as this method underestimate the growth of experience of the problem solver.
Another takeaway could be that we should search total AI safety solutions where we have less unknowns.