Depending of the size of the group, there is a very catastrophic possible side-effect from such a system : we have to decide one of the two techniques to use to solve a problem, I make the prediction technique A will not work, but the others disagree and finally the group decides to chose technique A. What is my interest now ? To ensure the group will fail, so my prediction will be true.
A very fundamental aspect of group decision is to ensure the “dissidents” will still do their best to ensure the group success. Prediction markets may work when you can’t really change the outcome of the prediction (when you predict what others will do), but not for (relatively small) group decision when you’ll be part of the process that will finally succeed or fail.
Robin Hanson has said that prediction markets have historically been extremely resilient against manipulation attempts. Historical markets are mostly those where the “bettors on beliefs” do not have a personal stake in the success of “technique A,” like a group member would—so it seems like this futarchist method is overall better than historical group decision-making methods, even if there are some perverse incentive problems.
Depending of the size of the group, there is a very catastrophic possible side-effect from such a system : we have to decide one of the two techniques to use to solve a problem, I make the prediction technique A will not work, but the others disagree and finally the group decides to chose technique A. What is my interest now ? To ensure the group will fail, so my prediction will be true.
A very fundamental aspect of group decision is to ensure the “dissidents” will still do their best to ensure the group success. Prediction markets may work when you can’t really change the outcome of the prediction (when you predict what others will do), but not for (relatively small) group decision when you’ll be part of the process that will finally succeed or fail.
Robin Hanson has said that prediction markets have historically been extremely resilient against manipulation attempts. Historical markets are mostly those where the “bettors on beliefs” do not have a personal stake in the success of “technique A,” like a group member would—so it seems like this futarchist method is overall better than historical group decision-making methods, even if there are some perverse incentive problems.